I am referring to the Austrian economics-inspired Marc Faber and his prediction of hyperinflation in the US (100% certain, no less!). Notice how Faber never gave a time period for his prediction (was it supposed to be within 1 year? 2? 3? 6? 10? 50? 100?), and one need hardly point to how absurd it is for anyone to claim that he is predicting something, but then spectacularly fail to give a time period to limit the prediction and allow it to be tested.
It is now approaching 4 years since this video and it remains as absurd as ever.
Faber was also wrong to assert that all of the 19th century was a period of deflation. In fact, it was the 1873 to 1896 period that was the serious deflationary era of the late 19th century. Nor (despite his assertions) was real per capita GDP growth at that time very impressive. Over about the past 140 years of US history, the 1870s and 1880s stand out as some of the worst decades in terms of real per capita GDP growth:
(1) Average Growth Rate 1921–1930: 1.27%The 1870s and 1890s were also eras of economic malaise as I shown here:
(2) Average Growth Rate 1931–1940: 1.54%
(3) Average Growth Rate 1871–1880: 1.64%
(4) Average Growth Rate 1881–1890: 1.65%
(5) Average Growth Rate 1951–1960: 1.75%
(6) Average Growth Rate 1991–2000: 1.94%
(7) Average Growth Rate 1891–1900: 2.04%
(8) Average Growth Rate 1901–1910: 2.13%
(9) Average Growth Rate 1971–1980: 2.16%
(10) Average Growth Rate 1981–1990: 2.26%
(11) Average Growth Rate 1961–1970: 2.88%.
“Rothbard on the US Economy in the 1870s: A Critique,” September 24, 2012.Nor was Schiff’s position really that far from Faber’s: for Schiff, if the US did not change policy (i.e., large deficits and QE) it was headed for hyperinflation. Yet there has continued to be large deficits and round after round of QE since 2009, and still no sign of the Austrian inflationary armageddon.
“Davis on US Recessions in the 19th Century,” August 25, 2012.
“US Unemployment in the 1890s,” January 24, 2012.