The Great Depression in Europe: Real GDP Data for 22 nations

This is an update of an earlier post, in which I forgot to include Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain in my data.

Here is data on real GDP loss and the duration of the Great Depression for 22 European nations, ranked from the most severe to the least severe real output loss, and we must also remember that some nations had double dip recessions/depressions:

Nation | Real GDP Loss | Years of Contraction
(1) Austria | -22.45% | 1929–1933
(2) Poland | -20.70% | 1930–1933
(3) Czechoslovakia | -18.19% | 1930–1935
(4) Germany | -16.11% | 1929–1932
(5) France | -14.65% | 1930–1932
(6) Yugoslavia | -13.69% | 1930–1932
(7) Bulgaria | -12.72% | 1934–1935
(8) Netherlands | -9.46% | 1930–1934
(9) Hungary | -9.36% | 1930–1932
(10) Switzerland | -8.02% | 1930–1932
(11) Belgium | -7.89% | 1929–1932
(12) Norway | -7.75% | 1931
(13) Greece | -6.46 | 1929–1931
(14) Sweden | -6.20% | 1931–1932
(15) Spain | -5.81 | 1929–1931
(16) UK | -5.80% | 1930–1931
(17) Romania | -5.57% | 1932
(18) Italy | -5.47% | 1930–1931
(19) Ireland | -4.84 | 1932–1933
(20) Romania | -4.57% | 1929
(21) Finland | -3.97% | 1930–1932
(22) Ireland | -3.75% | 1937
(23) Denmark | -2.62% | 1932
(24) Spain | -1.95% | 1933
(25) Bulgaria | -1.91%* | 1929
(26) Portugal | -1.23% | 1930
* The recession in Bulgaria in 1929 may not actually have been caused by the Great Depression, but by Bulgaria’s deflationary return to the Gold Standard in 1928.

From this we can see that Austria, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Germany, France, Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria had the most severe depressions in the data.

The Netherlands, Hungary, Switzerland, Belgium, Norway, Greece, Sweden, Spain, the UK and Italy had real output losses ranging from -9.46 to -5.47%

Most surprising is how comparatively mild the Great Depression was in Finland, Denmark, and Portugal. I have not investigated why this is.

Below is the detailed real GDP data, with some extended comments on some nations.

1. Greece

Real GDP in Greece, 1927–1946
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1927 | 13603 |
1928 | 13864 | 1.91%
1929 | 14696 | 6.00%
1930 | 14342 | -2.40%
1931 | 13746 | -4.15%
1932 | 14912 | 8.48%
1933 | 15784 | 5.84%
1934 | 16173 | 2.46%
1935 | 16846 | 4.16%
1936 | 16907 | 0.36%
1937 | 19307 | 14.19%
1938 | 18901 | -2.10%
1939 | 18875 | -0.13%
1940 | 16183 | -14.26%
1941 | 13796 | -14.75%
1942 | 11588 | -16.00%
1943 | 9683 | -16.43%
1944 | 8129 | -16.04%
1945 | 6865 | -15.54%
1946 | 10284 | 49.80%

From 1929 to 1931, real GDP fell by -6.46.

2. Portugal

Real GDP in Portugal, 1927–1946
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1927 | 10772 |
1928 | 9732 | -9.65%
1929 | 10789 | 10.86%
1930 | 10656 | -1.23%
1931 | 11204 | 5.14%
1932 | 11422 | 1.94%
1933 | 12194 | 6.75%
1934 | 12714 | 4.26%
1935 | 12041 | -5.29%
1936 | 11124 | -7.61%
1937 | 12997 | 16.83%
1938 | 13084 | 0.66%
1939 | 13259 | 1.33%
1940 | 12396 | -6.50%
1941 | 13551 | 9.31%
1942 | 13369 | -1.34%
1943 | 14263 | 6.68%
1944 | 15079 | 5.72%
1945 | 14497 | -3.85%
1946 | 15635 | 7.84%

In 1930, real GDP fell by -1.23%.

3. Spain

Real GDP in Spain, 1927–1946
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1927 | 59140 |
1928 | 59371 | 0.39
1929 | 63570 | 7.07
1930 | 61435 | -3.35
1931 | 59871 | -2.54
1932 | 61163 | 2.15
1933 | 59966 | -1.95
1934 | 62231 | 3.77
1935 | 63482 | 2.01
1936 | 49343 | -22.27
1937 | 45272 | -8.25
1938 | 45255 | -0.03
1939 | 48856 | 7.95
1940 | 53585 | 9.67
1941 | 52726 | -1.60
1942 | 55670 | 5.58
1943 | 57724 | 3.68
1944 | 60407 | 4.64
1945 | 56326 | -6.75
1946 | 58854 | 4.48

From 1929 to 1931, real GDP fell by -5.81. A second recession occurred in 1933 with a real output loss of -1.95.

The real output loss from 1936 to 1938 was caused by the Spanish civil war.

4. Italy

Real GDP in Italy, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 121 182 |
1929 | 125 180 | 3.29%
1930 | 119 014 | -4.92%
1931 | 118 323 | -0.58%
1932 | 122 140 | 3.22%
1933 | 121 317 | -0.67%
1934 | 121 826 | 0.41%
1935 | 133 559 | 9.63%
1936 | 133 792 | 0.17%
1937 | 142 954 | 6.84%
1938 | 143 981 | 0.71%
1939 | 154 470 | 7.28%
1940 | 155 424 | 0.61%
1941 | 153 517 | -1.22%
1942 | 151 610 | -1.24%
1943 | 137 307 | -9.43%
1944 | 111 562 | -18.74%
1945 | 87 342 | -21.70%
(Maddison 2003: 50).

From 1930 to 1931 the real GDP loss was 5.47%.

5. Austria

Real GDP in Austria, 1928–1938
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 24 295 | 4.64%
1929 | 24 647 | 1.44%
1930 | 23 967 | -2.75%
1931 | 22 044 | -8.02%
1932 | 19 769 | -10.32%
1933 | 19 113 | -3.31%
1934 | 19 277 | 0.85%
1935 | 19 652 | 1.94%
1936 | 20 238 | 2.98%
1937 | 21 317 | 5.33%
1938 | 24 037 | 12.75%
1939 | 27 250 | 13.36%
1940 | 26 547 | -2.57%
1941 | 28 446 | 7.15%
1942 | 27 016 | -5.02%
1943 | 27 672 | 2.42%
1944 | 28 376 | 2.54%
1945 | 11 726 | -58.67%
(Maddison 2003: 50).

During Austria’s deflationary depression from 1929 to 1933, real output fell by 22.45%.

6. Switzerland

Real GDP in Switzerland, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 24 609 |
1929 | 25 466 | 3.48%
1930 | 25 301 | -0.64%
1931 | 24 246 | -4.16%
1932 | 23 422 | -3.39%
1933 | 24 593 | 4.99%
1934 | 24 642 | 0.19%
1935 | 24 543 | -0.40%
1936 | 24 626 | 0.33%
1937 | 25 796 | 4.75%
1938 | 26 785 | 3.83%
1939 | 26 752 | -0.12%
1940 | 27 032 | 1.04%
1941 | 26 851 | -0.66%
1942 | 26 175 | -2.51%
1943 | 25 944 | -0.88%
1944 | 26 571 | 2.41%
1945 | 34 202 | 28.71%
(Maddison 2003: 51).

The real output loss from 1930 to 1932 was 8.02%.

7. Germany

Real GDP in Germany, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 263 367 | 4.37%
1929 | 262 284 | -0.41%
1930 | 258 602 | -1.40%
1931 | 238 893 | -7.62%
1932 | 220 916 | -7.52%
1933 | 234 778 | 6.27%
1934 | 256 220 | 9.13%
1935 | 275 496 | 7.52%
1936 | 299 753 | 8.80%
1937 | 317 783 | 6.01%
1938 | 342 351 | 7.73%
1939 | 374 577 | 9.41%
1940 | 377 284 | 0.72%
1941 | 401 174 | 6.33%
1942 | 406 582 | 1.34%
1943 | 414 696 | 1.99%
1944 | 425 041 | 2.49%
1945 | 302 457 | -28.84%
(Maddison 2003: 50).

The real output loss from 1929 to 1932 was 16.11%, extended over four years of depression.

8. France

Real GDP in France, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 181 912 |
1929 | 194 193 | 6.75%
1930 | 188 558 | -2.90%
1931 | 177 288 | -5.97%
1932 | 165 729 | -6.51%
1933 | 177 577 | 7.14%
1934 | 175 843 | -0.97%
1935 | 171 364 | -2.54%
1936 | 177 866 | 3.79%
1937 | 188 125 | 5.76%
1938 | 187 402 | -0.38%
1939 | 200 840 | 7.17%
1940 | 165 729 | -17.48%
1941 | 131 052 | -20.92%
1942 | 117 470 | -10.36%
1943 | 111 546 | -5.04%
1944 | 94 207 | -15.54%
1945 | 102 154 | 8.43%
(Maddison 2003: 50).

The real output loss from 1930 to 1932 was 14.65%.

9. Netherlands

Real GDP in Netherlands, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 43 921 |
1929 | 44 270 | 0.79%
1930 | 44 170 | -0.22%
1931 | 41 475 | -6.10%
1932 | 40 901 | -1.38%
1933 | 40 826 | -0.18%
1934 | 40 078 | -1.83%
1935 | 41 575 | 3.73%
1936 | 44 195 | 6.30%
1937 | 46 716 | 5.70%
1938 | 45 593 | -2.40%
1939 | 48 687 | 6.78%
1940 | 42 898 | -11.89%
1941 | 40 627 | -5.29%
1942 | 37 133 | -8.60%
1943 | 36 235 | -2.41%
1944 | 24 306 | -32.92%
1945 | 24 880 | 2.36%
(Maddison 2003: 51).

The real output loss from 1930 to 1934 was 9.46%.

10. Belgium

Real GDP in Belgium, 1927–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1927 | 38 913 |
1928 | 40 951 | 5.23%
1929 | 40 595 | -0.86%
1930 | 40 207 | -0.95%
1931 | 39 496 | -1.76%
1932 | 37 717 | -4.50%
1933 | 38 525 | 2.14%
1934 | 38 202 | -0.83%
1935 | 40 563 | 6.18%
1936 | 40 854 | 0.71%
1937 | 41 404 | 1.34%
1938 | 40 466 | -2.26%
1939 | 43 216 | 6.79%
1940 | 38 072 | -11.90%
1941 | 36 067 | -5.26%
1942 | 32 962 | -8.60%
1943 | 32 198 | -2.31%
1944 | 34 094 | 5.88%
1945 | 36 132 | 5.97%
(Maddison 2003: 50).

From 1929 to 1932, there was a real output loss of 7.89%.

11. Denmark

Real GDP in Denmark, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 16 735 |
1929 | 17 855 | 6.69%
1930 | 18 917 | 5.94%
1931 | 19 127 | 1.11%
1932 | 18 625 | -2.62%
1933 | 19 220 | 3.19%
1934 | 19 804 | 3.03%
1935 | 20 247 | 2.23%
1936 | 20 749 | 2.47%
1937 | 21 251 | 2.41%
1938 | 21 765 | 2.41%
1939 | 22 803 | 4.76%
1940 | 19 606 | -14.0%
1941 | 17 668 | -9.88%
1942 | 18 065 | 2.24%
1943 | 20 061 | 11.04%
1944 | 22 161 | 10.46%
1945 | 20 493 | -7.52%
(Maddison 2003: 50).

Denmark’s real GDP loss was just 2.62% in 1932.

12. Norway

Real GDP in Norway, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 8 879
1929 | 9 705 | 9.30%
1930 | 10 421 | 7.37%
1931 | 9 613 | -7.75%
1932 | 10 255 | 6.67%
1933 | 10 500 | 2.38%
1934 | 10 837 | 3.20%
1935 | 11 302 | 4.29%
1936 | 11 993 | 6.11%
1937 | 12 422 | 3.57%
1938 | 12 734 | 2.51%
1939 | 13 339 | 4.75%
1940 | 12 152 | -8.89%
1941 | 12 446 | 2.41%
1942 | 11 963 | -3.88%
1943 | 11 724 | -1.99%
1944 | 11 112 | -5.22%
1945 | 12 452 | 12.05%
(Maddison 2003: 51).

In 1931 there was a real output loss of 7.75%. Now Norway abandoned the gold standard in 1931 and implemented a loose and stimulative monetary policy, helping banks and apparently preventing financial collapse. A severe and prolonged deflation was avoided and moderate inflation resulted. This must have averted a debt deflationary collapse (though I do not know to what extent excessive private debt was an issue in the Norwegian economy). The end to the gold standard also allowed a currency depreciation, which stimulated export-led growth and import substitution.

Ole Colbjørnsen and the economist Ragnar Frisch proposed a strongly Keynesian policy to revive the Norwegian economy around 1933-1934, but I do not know to what extent it was actually implemented.

Some quick research seems to indicate that from 1935 under Johan Nygaardsvold the Norwegian government engaged in some mild Keynesian fiscal stimulus, though other economists deny this.

Apparently, the Nygaardsvold government did implement welfare measures and the economy revived from export-led growth (to a considerable extent driven by German demand for Norwegian goods) after 1935.

Although government spending rose, it appears to have been covered by tax increases. One suggestion has been that tax policy took in a certain amount of money that was not being spent on capital goods investment or consumption, and hence that government spending was stimulative to some degree, but other scholars dispute this:

“There was a significant growth in the public sector. However, this increase was levelled out by higher taxes. Thus, in this respect, the net effect on demand was neutral. On the other hand, the marginal propensities to consume and save differed from the public to the private sector. Empirical evidence from Norway reflects that the marginal propensity to consume was higher in the public sector than in the private. Thus, [ceteris paribus] ... the relative growth in the public sector had a positive impact on demand. Nevertheless, due to budget discipline and moderate multiplier effects the fiscal policy in Norway under the Labour Party rule in the 1930s was neutral. In sum, fiscal policy seems to have played a minor, if any, role for the relative good performance of the Nordic economies during the 1930s.”

Ola Honningdal Grytten, “Why was the Great Depression not so Great in the Nordic Countries? Economic Policy and Unemployment,” p. 18.

Moreover, the data indicates that Norway had a serious unemployment problem right up to the war:

Unemployment in Norway
Year | Unemployment Rate
1927 | 8.9%
1928 | 7.9%
1929 | 7.0%
1930 | 7.0%
1931 | 10.2%
1932 | 10.6%
1933 | 10.8%
1934 | 10.3%
1935 | 9.9%
1936 | 8.7%
1937 | 7.3%
1938 | 6.8%
1939 | 5.7%
Ola Honningdal Grytten, “Why was the Great Depression not so Great in the Nordic Countries? Economic Policy and Unemployment,” p. 13.

So overall one would have to say that government intervention added recovery to some extent (via monetary policy and banking stabilisation), but also international trade helped. Fiscal stimulus was either too mild or just neutral: it needed to be much larger.

13. Sweden

Real GDP in Sweden, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 22 293 |
1929 | 23 651 | 6.09%
1930 | 24 138 | 2.05%
1931 | 23 268 | -3.60%
1932 | 22 641 | -2.69%
1933 | 23 076 | 1.92%
1934 | 24 834 | 7.61%
1935 | 26 418 | 6.37%
1936 | 27 949 | 5.79%
1937 | 29 272 | 4.73%
1938 | 29 759 | 1.66%
1939 | 31 813 | 6.90%
1940 | 30 873 | -2.95%
1941 | 31 395 | 1.69%
1942 | 33 309 | 6.09%
1943 | 34 789 | 4.44%
1944 | 35 972 | 3.40%
1945 | 36 947 | 2.71%
(Maddison 2003: 51).

From 1931 to 1932, there was a real output loss of 6.20%.

14. Finland

Real GDP in Finland, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 9 194 |
1929 | 9 302 | 1.17%
1930 | 9 194 | -1.16%
1931 | 8 970 | -2.43%
1932 | 8 932 | -0.42%
1933 | 9 526 | 6.65%
1934 | 10 606 | 11.33%
1935 | 11 059 | 4.27%
1936 | 11 807 | 6.76%
1937 | 12 478 | 5.68%
1938 | 13 123 | 5.16%
1939 | 12 561 | -4.28%
1940 | 11 909 | -5.19%
1941 | 12 299 | 3.27%
1942 | 12 337 | 0.30%
1943 | 13 756 | 11.50%
1944 | 13 762 | 0.04%
1945 | 12 963 | -5.80%
(Maddison 2003: 50).

Real GDP loss from 1930 to 1932 was 3.97%.

15. United Kingdom

Real GDP in the UK, 1928–1945
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 244 160 |
1929 | 251 348 | 2.94%
1930 | 249 551 | -0.71%
1931 | 236 747 | -5.13%
1932 | 238 544 | 0.75%
1933 | 245 507 | 2.91%
1934 | 261 680 | 6.58%
1935 | 271 788 | 3.86%
1936 | 284 142 | 4.54%
1937 | 294 025 | 3.47%
1938 | 297 619 | 1.22%
1939 | 300 539 | 0.98%
1940 | 330 638 | 10.01%
1941 | 360 737 | 9.10%
1942 | 369 721 | 2.49%
1943 | 377 807 | 2.18%
1944 | 362 983 | -3.92%
1945 | 347 035 | -4.39%
(Maddison 2003: 51).

Real GDP loss from 1930 to 1931 was 5.80%.

16. Ireland

Real GDP in Ireland, 1927–1946
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1927 | 7845 |
1928 | 8058 | 2.71%
1929 | 8294 | 2.92%
1930 | 8480 | 2.24%
1931 | 8716 | 2.78%
1932 | 8508 | -2.38%
1933 | 8294 | -2.51%
1934 | 8562 | 3.23%
1935 | 8812 | 2.91%
1936 | 9056 | 2.76%
1937 | 8716 | -3.75%
1938 | 8965 | 2.85%
1939 | 8955 | -0.11%
1940 | 9028 | 0.81%
1941 | 9135 | 1.18%
1942 | 9043 | -1.00%
1943 | 8991 | -0.57%
1944 | 8985 | -0.06%
1945 | 8912 | -0.81%
1946 | 9025 | 1.26%

From 1931 to 1933, there was a real GDP loss of -4.84. A second recession occurred in 1937, with a GDP loss of -3.75%

17. Yugoslavia

Real GDP in Yugoslavia, 1928–1939
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 18 381 |
1929 | 19 363 | 5.34%
1930 | 18 995 | -1.90%
1931 | 18 430 | -2.97%
1932 | 16 712 | -9.32%
1933 | 17 228 | 3.08%
1934 | 17 866 | 3.70%
1935 | 17 596 | -1.51%
1936 | 19 878 | 12.96%
1937 | 20 197 | 1.60%
1938 | 21 817 | 8.02%
1939 | 23 019 | 5.50%

There was a total contraction in GDP of -13.69% from 1930 to 1932

18. Romania

Real GDP in Romania, 1928–1938
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 16 850 |
1929 | 16 079 | -4.57%
1930 | 17 235 | 7.18%
1931 | 17 640 | 2.34%
1932 | 16 657 | -5.57%
1933 | 17 447 | 4.74%
1934 | 17 640 | 1.10%
1935 | 18 026 | 2.18%
1936 | 18 218 | 1.06%
1937 | 17 447 | -4.23%
1938 | 19 375 | 11.05%

Romania had moderately severe double dip recession, with a -4.57% contraction of GDP in 1929, and -5.57% in 1932.

19. Poland

Real GDP in Poland, 1928–1938
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1929 | 58 980 |
1930 | 56 247 | -4.63%
1931 | 52 177 | -7.23%
1932 | 48 107 | -7.80%
1933 | 46 771 | -2.77%
1934 | 47 439 | 1.42%
1935 | 48 107 | 1.40%
1936 | 49 504 | 2.90%
1937 | 58 980 | 19.14%
1938 | 67 788 | 14.93%

Poland had a real GDP loss of -20.70% from 1930 to 1933.

20. Hungary

Real GDP in Hungary, 1928–1942
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 20 576 |
1929 | 21 250 | 3.27%
1930 | 20 789 | -2.16%
1931 | 19 786 | -4.82%
1932 | 19 260 | -2.65%
1933 | 21 003 | 9.04%
1934 | 21 135 | 0.62%
1935 | 22 204 | 5.05%
1936 | 23 684 | 6.66%
1937 | 23 158 | -2.22%
1938 | 24 342 | 5.11%
1939 | 26 184 | 7.56%
1940 | 24 391 | -6.84%
1941 | 24 539 | 0.60%
1942 | 25 773 | 5.02%

Hungary experienced a real GDP contraction of -9.36% between 1930 and 1932.

21. Czechoslovakia

Real GDP in Czechoslovakia, 1928–1937
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 41 106
1929 | 42 240 | 2.75%
1930 | 40 856 | -3.27%
1931 | 39 468 | -3.39%
1932 | 37 886 | -4.00%
1933 | 36 276 | -4.24%
1934 | 34 889 | -3.82%
1935 | 34 556 | -0.95%
1936 | 37 387 | 8.192%
1937 | 41 578 | 11.20%

Czechoslovakia had a real GDP loss of -18.19% from 1930 to 1935. The duration of depression was unusually severe.

22. Bulgaria

Real GDP in Bulgaria, 1928–1942
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1927 | 7 274 |
1928 | 7 160 | -1.56%
1929 | 7 023 | -1.91%
1930 | 7 741 | 10.22%
1931 | 8 876 | 14.66%
1932 | 8 933 | 0.64%
1933 | 9 084 | 1.69%
1934 | 8 308 | -8.54%
1935 | 7 928 | -4.57%
1936 | 9 659 | 21.83%
1937 | 10 204 | 5.64%
1938 | 10 470 | 2.60%
1939 | 10 599 | 1.23%
1940 | 10 319 | -2.64%
1941 | 10 520 | 1.94%
1942 | 10 018 | -4.77%

Bulgaria’s Great Depression was preceded by real output collapse caused by the return to the gold standard in 1928 at too high a level and by government fiscal austerity. Still, the real output fall in 1929 was a mild -1.91%, and this may have been caused by the deflationary policies implemented from 1928.

The really serious collapse came from 1934 to 1935 at -12.72%.


BIBLIOGRAPHY
Grytten, Ola Honningdal. “Why was the Great Depression not so Great in the Nordic Countries? Economic Policy and Unemployment,” online.

Maddison, Angus. 1982. Phases of Capitalist Development. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Maddison, Angus. 2003. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing, Paris.

The Great Depression in 9 Asian Nations: Real GDP Data

The Great Depression in Asia seems a neglected topic, but I present some data on real GDP loss below for 9 Asian nations.

As in previous posts, we can rank the real GDP contraction and the duration of the Great Depression in each nation from the most severe to the least severe real output loss:

Nation | Real GDP loss | Years of Contraction
(1) Philippines | -13.15% | 1935
(2) Sri Lanka | -12.77% | 1929–1932
(3) Malaysia | -11.43% | 1929–1932
(4) Indonesia | -9.20 | 1931–1933
(5) China | -8.71% | 1934
(6) Taiwan | -7.98% | 1933
(7) Japan | -7.27% | 1930
(8) Taiwan | -4.89% | 1929–1931
(9) Philippines | -2.48% | 1933
(10) South Korea | -1.89% | 1929
(11) South Korea | -1.40% | 1931
(12) South Korea | -1.09% | 1934
(13) India | -0.94% | 1935
(14) India | -0.65% | 1931

More detailed GDP data follows for each nation.

I. South Korea

Real GDP in South Korea
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1927 | 14 500 |
1928 | 14 171 | -2.26%
1929 | 13 902 | -1.89%
1930 | 14 179 | 1.99%
1931 | 13 980 | -1.40%
1932 | 14 570 | 4.22%
1933 | 16 670 | 14.41%
1934 | 16 488 | -1.09%
1935 | 18 648 | 13.10%
1936 | 19 915 | 6.79%
1937 | 22 614 | 13.55%
1938 | 22 440 | -0.76%
1939 | 20 115 | -10.36%
1940 | 22 536 | 12.03%
1941 | 22 848 | 1.38%

South Korea had recessions in 1929 (-1.89%), 1931 (-1.40%), and 1934 (-1.09%), which I assume are related to the Great Depression.

II. Taiwan

Real GDP in Taiwan
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1927 | 4 337 |
1928 | 5 315 | 22.55%
1929 | 5 149 | -3.12%
1930 | 5 073 | -1.47%
1931 | 5 055 | -0.35%
1932 | 5 747 | 13.68%
1933 | 5 288 | -7.98%
1934 | 5 677 | 7.35%
1935 | 6 807 | 19.90%
1936 | 6 639 | -2.46%
1937 | 6 986 | 5.22%
1938 | 7 395 | 5.85%
1939 | 8 094 | 9.45%
1940 | 8 064 | -0.37%
1941 | 8 871 | 10.00%
1942 | 9 524 | 7.36%

Taiwan had a real output collapse of -4.89% from 1929 to 1931, and another severe recession in 1933 with a -7.98% GDP loss.

III. Japan

Real GDP in Japan
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1928 | 124 246 |
1929 | 128 116 | 3.11%
1930 | 118 801 | -7.27%
1931 | 119 804 | 0.84%
1932 | 129 835 | 8.37%
1933 | 142 589 | 9.82%
1934 | 142 876 | 0.20%
1935 | 146 817 | 2.75%
1936 | 157 493 | 7.27%
1937 | 165 017 | 4.77%
1938 | 176 051 | 6.68%
1939 | 203 781 | 15.75%
1940 | 209 728 | 2.91%
1941 | 212 594 | 1.36%

Japan’s GDP loss was -7.27% in 1930.

IV. Philippines

Real GDP in Philippines
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1928 | 18 483 |
1929 | 19 363 | 4.76%
1930 | 19 478 | 0.59%
1931 | 19 481 | 0.01%
1932 | 21 154 | 8.58%
1933 | 20 628 | -2.48%
1934 | 21 567 | 4.55%
1935 | 18 730 | -13.15%
1936 | 21 373 | 14.11%
1937 | 23 335 | 9.17%
1938 | 24 252 | 3.92%
1939 | 26 130 | 7.74%
1940 | 26 326 | 0.75%

The Philippines had two real output contractions: the first in 1933 with a -2.48% GDP loss, and a depression in 1935 with a -13.15% GDP loss.

V. Indonesia

Real GDP in Indonesia
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1928 | 68 099 |
1929 | 70 015 | 2.81%
1930 | 70 525 | 0.72%
1931 | 65 218 | -7.52%
1932 | 64 461 | -1.16%
1933 | 64 035 | -0.66%
1934 | 64 400 | 0.57%
1935 | 66 674 | 3.53%
1936 | 71 517 | 7.26%
1937 | 78 485 | 9.74%
1938 | 80 044 | 1.98%
1939 | 80 861 | 1.02%
1940 | 86 682 | 7.19%
1941 | 89 316 | 3.03%

Indonesia’s real GDP fell by -9.20 between 1931 and 1933.

VI. China

Real GDP in China
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1929 | 273 991 |
1930 | 277 467 | 1.26%
1931 | 280 292 | 1.01%
1932 | 289 200 | 3.17%
1933 | 289 200 | 0%
1934 | 263 996 | -8.71%
1935 | 285 300 | 8.06%
1936 | 303 324 | 6.31%
1937 | 295 937 | -2.43%
1938 | 288 549 | -2.49%

There was 0% growth in 1933 and a GDP loss of -8.71% in 1934, which was presumably caused by the Great Depression.

The GDP loss from 1937 was presumably caused by the Second Sino-Japanese War (July 7, 1937–September 2, 1945).

VII. India

Real GDP in India
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1928 | 232 745 |
1929 | 242 409 | 4.15%
1930 | 244 097 | 0.69%
1931 | 242 489 | -0.65%
1932 | 245 209 | 1.12%
1933 | 245 433 | 0.09%
1934 | 247 712 | 0.92%
1935 | 245 361 | -0.94%
1936 | 254 896 | 3.88%
1937 | 250 768 | -1.61%
1938 | 251 375 | 0.24%
1939 | 256 924 | 2.20%
1940 | 265 455 | 3.32%
1941 | 270 531 | 1.91%

India had a recession in 1931 with a -0.65% GDP contraction, and a second in 1935 in which GDP contracted by -0.94%.

A third occurred in 1937, but the cause of this is unclear.

VIII. Malaysia

Real GDP in Malaysia, 1927–1941
in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
1927 | 5165 |
1928 | 5865 | 13.55%
1929 | 7261 | 23.80%
1930 | 7219 | -0.57%
1931 | 6988 | -3.19%
1932 | 6431 | -7.97%
1933 | 6762 | 5.14%
1934 | 7380 | 9.13%
1935 | 6672 | -9.59%
1936 | 7380 | 10.61%
1937 | 6672 | -9.59%
1938 | 7089 | 6.25%
1939 | 8557 | 20.70%
1940 | 6945 | -18.83%
1941 | 6878 | -0.96%

From 1929 to 1932, real GDP fell by -11.43%.

IX. Sri Lanka

Real GDP in Sri Lanka, 1927-1941
in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | Real GDP* | Growth Rate
1927 | 7053 |
1928 | 7202 | 2.11%
1929 | 7571 | 5.12%
1930 | 7220 | -4.63%
1931 | 6914 | -4.23%
1932 | 6604 | -4.48%
1933 | 6699 | 1.43%
1934 | 7397 | 10.41%
1935 | 6982 | -5.61%
1936 | 6981 | -0.01%
1937 | 7466 | 6.94%
1938 | 7407 | -0.79%
1939 | 7230 | -2.38%
1940 | 7673 | 6.12%
1941 | 7875 | 2.63%

From 1929 to 1932, real GDP fell by -12.77%.


BIBLIOGRAPHY
Maddison, Angus. 2003. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing, Paris.

The Great Depression in 22 Western Nations: Real GDP Data

If I bring together all the data I have collected in previous posts, we can see the real GDP loss and the duration of the Great Depression for 22 Western nations, ranked from the most severe to the least severe real output loss:

Nation | Real GDP loss | Years of Contraction
(1) Canada | -29.59% | 1929–1933
(2) US | -28.52% | 1929–1933
(3) Austria | -22.45% | 1929–1933
(4) Poland | -20.70% | 1930–1933
(5) Czechoslovakia | -18.19% | 1930–1935
(6) Germany | -16.11% | 1929–1932
(7) France | -14.65% | 1930–1932
(8) New Zealand | -14.63% | 1930–1932
(9) Yugoslavia | -13.69% | 1930–1932
(10) Bulgaria | -12.72% | 1934–1935
(11) Netherlands | -9.46% | 1930–1934
(12) Hungary | -9.36% | 1930–1932
(13) Switzerland | -8.02% | 1930–1932
(14) Belgium | -7.89% | 1929–1932
(15) Norway | -7.75% | 1931
(16) Sweden | -6.20% | 1931–1932
(17) UK | -5.80% | 1930–1931
(18) Australia | -5.78% | 1929–1930
(19) Romania | -5.57% | 1932
(20) Italy | -5.47% | 1930–1931
(21) Romania | -4.57% | 1929
(22) Finland | -3.97% | 1930–1932
(23) US | -3.97% | 1938
(24) Denmark | -2.62% | 1932
(25) Australia | -2.57% | 1932
(26) Bulgaria | -1.91% | 1929

The worst depressions were in Canada and the US, with Austria, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Germany, France and New Zealand following.

If we define a depression as a contraction of real output of 10% or more, technically only Canada, US, Austria, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Germany, France, New Zealand, the former Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria had depressions. Technically, all other nations had mild, moderate or very severe recessions (a recession is a real output loss of less than 10%).

The output loss was less severe in Scandinavia and South Eastern Europe.

Denmark and Finland had moderate recessions rather than depressions.

To escape the worst ravages of the depression, some Scandinavian nations left the gold standard quickly, devalued their currencies, stabilised their banking systems and implemented loose monetary policy, and perhaps some degree of fiscal stimulus (although the question whether the Scandinavian countries pursued fiscal expansion is disputed by some economists).

The UK left the gold standard and devalued its currency quickly, which allowed some degree of export-led growth, but unemployment was still shockingly high in the UK in the 1930s.

Those nations that recovered from the Great Depression or its aftermath rapidly and successfully were New Zealand, Germany and (although not a Western nation) Japan. They did so by large-scale fiscal stimulus. The US recovery was aided by moderate fiscal expansion, but not nearly enough to drive the economy to full employment.

More on the fiscal expansion in New Zealand, Germany and Japan is given in these posts:

“Keynesian Stimulus in New Zealand: 1936–1938,” September 23, 2011.

“Takahashi Korekiyo and Fiscal Stimulus in Japan in the 1930s,” August 27, 2011.

“Fiscal Stimulus in Germany 1933–1936,” September 3, 2011.

The Great Depression in Western Offshoots: Real GDP Data for 4 Nations

I consider the Western offshoots to be Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand.

As in previous posts, I have given the data on real GDP loss and the duration of the Great Depression for these nations, ranked from the most severe to the least severe real output loss:

Nation | Real GDP loss | Years of Contraction
(1) Canada | -29.59% | 1929–1933
(2) US | -28.52% | 1929–1933
(3) New Zealand | -14.63% | 1930–1932
(4) Australia | -5.78% | 1929–1930
(5) US | -3.97% | 1938
(6) Australia | -2.57% | 1932

Curiously, Canada’s Great Depression (in terms of real GDP loss) was slightly worse than that of the US, something which I did not know.

The Great Depression was considerably less severe in Australia and New Zealand, and New Zealand was one of the pioneers of Keynesian fiscal stimulus to end the depression.

The data for individual countries follows.

I. The United States

Real GDP in the US
millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1928 | 794 700 |
1929 | 843 334 | 6.11%
1930 | 768 314 | -8.89%
1931 | 709 332 | -7.67%
1932 | 615 686 | -13.20%
1933 | 602 751 | -2.10%
1934 | 649 316 | 7.72%
1935 | 698 984 | 7.64%
1936 | 798 322 | 14.21%
1937 | 832 469 | 4.27%
1938 | 799 357 | -3.97%
1939 | 862 995 | 7.96%
1940 | 929 737 | 7.73%
1941 | 1 098 921 | 18.19%
1942 | 1 318 809 | 20.00%
1943 | 1 581 122 | 19.89%
1944 | 1 713 572 | 8.37%
1945 | 1 644 761 | -4.01%

Real GDP fell by -28.52% from 1929 to 1933.

A further policy-induced recession occurred in 1938 caused by Roosevelt’s fiscal and monetary contraction.

II. Canada

Real GDP in Canada
millions 1990 international Geary-Khamis $
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1928 | 52 269 |
1929 | 52 199 | -0.13%
1930 | 50 454 | -3.34%
1931 | 42 667 | -15.43%
1932 | 39 630 | -7.11%
1933 | 36 801 | -7.13%
1934 | 40 712 | 10.62%
1935 | 43 994 | 8.06%
1936 | 46 368 | 5.39%
1937 | 50 733 | 9.41%
1938 | 52 060 | 2.61%
1939 | 55 167 | 5.96%
1940 | 62 744 | 13.73%
1941 | 71 508 | 13.96%
1942 | 84 182 | 17.72%
1943 | 87 988 | 4.52%
1944 | 91 305 | 3.76%
1945 | 88 477 | -3.09%
1946 | 87 569 | -1.02%.

Canada suffered a severe depression with a real GDP loss of -29.59% from 1929 to 1933.

III. Australia

Australian Real GDP (from Butlin)
millions 1990 international Geary-Khamis $
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1927 | $34,716
1928 | 34 164 | -1.59%
1929 | 33 834 | -0.96%
1930 | 32 181 | -4.88%
1931 | 32 720 | 1.67%
1932 | 31 878 | -2.57%
1933 | 33 696 | 5.70%
1934 | 34 991 | 3.84%
1935 | 36 424 | 4.09%
1936 | 38 160 | 4.76%
1937 | 40 336 | 5.70%
1938 | 40 639 | 0.75%
(Maddison 2006: 452).

It appears that a recession already began in Australia in 1928 (this was bad timing), and then the Australian economy was hit by the effects of the global Great Depression in 1929.

From 1929 to 1930, the Australian economy contracted by -5.78%. There was a brief recovery in 1931, but a further recession in 1932 where GDP fell by -2.57%.

III. New Zealand

Real GDP in New Zealand
millions 1990 international Geary-Khamis $
Year | GDP | Growth Rate
1928 | 7 475 |
1929 | 7 741 | 3.55%
1930 | 7 405 | -4.34%
1931 | 6 775 | -8.50%
1932 | 6 608 | -2.46%
1933 | 7 047 | 6.64%
1934 | 7 400 | 5.00%
1935 | 7 747 | 4.68%
1936 | 9 186 | 18.57%
1937 | 9 683 | 5.41%
1938 | 10 365 | 7.04%
1939 | 10 510 | 1.39%
1940 | 10 308 | -1.92%
1941 | 9 984 | -3.14%
1942 | 11 082 | 10.99%
1943 | 11 313 | 2.08%
1944 | 11 360 | 0.41%
1945 | 11 695 | 2.94%

From 1930 to 1932 real GDP loss was -14.63%.

But New Zealand was a pioneer of Keynesian fiscal stimulus as I have shown before, and got out of the depression relatively quickly.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Maddison, Angus. 2003. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing, Paris.

The Great Depression in Europe: Real GDP Data for 18 nations

Here is data on real GDP loss and the duration of the Great Depression for 18 European nations, ranked from the most severe to the least severe real output loss:

Nation | Real GDP Loss | Years of Contraction
(1) Austria | -22.45% | 1929–1933
(2) Poland | -20.70% | 1930–1933
(3) Czechoslovakia | -18.19% | 1930–1935
(4) Germany | -16.11% | 1929–1932
(5) France | -14.65% | 1930–1932
(6) Yugoslavia | -13.69% | 1930–1932
(7) Bulgaria | -12.72% | 1934–1935
(8) Netherlands | -9.46% | 1930–1934
(9) Hungary | -9.36% | 1930–1932
(10) Switzerland | -8.02% | 1930–1932
(11) Belgium | -7.89% | 1929–1932
(12) Norway | -7.75% | 1931
(13) Sweden | -6.20% | 1931–1932
(14) UK | -5.80% | 1930–1931
(15) Romania | -5.57% | 1932
(16) Italy | -5.47% | 1930–1931
(17) Romania | -4.57% | 1929
(18) Finland | -3.97% | 1930–1932
(19) Denmark | -2.62% | 1932
(20) Bulgaria | -1.91%* | 1929

* The recession in Bulgaria in 1929 may not actually have been caused by the Great Depression, but by Bulgaria’s deflationary return to the Gold Standard in 1928.

What leaps out of the data for me is Austria.

Austria had the worst depression in Europe (amongst the nations examined above) in terms of real GDP loss, which can be seen in the graph below. After a terrible real output collapse of -22.45% from 1929 to 1933, essentially stagnation followed until 1936. A uptick occurred in 1937, but in 1938 Austria was seized by Nazi Germany and entered a different economic system. The first years of the Nazi Regime are shown in the ellipse.



Curiously, the Austrian government (and from 1933 the dictatorship) was taking some kind of policy advice from Ludwig von Mises – patron saint of Austrian economics.

Aside from some corporatist interventions, successive Austrian governments pursued deflationary policies, budget balancing and austerity. It is likely that Mises would have strongly approved of the latter measures. And what do you know? Worst depression in Europe (as far as I know).

If we look at Austrian unemployment during the 1930s which can be seen in the graph below, it was remarkably bad too: it shows no real recovery until after the Anschluss (12 March, 1938).



Of course, I am being a bit rhetorical here. No, I do not think Mises was really to blame for the depth of the depression in Austria. Plenty of other nations pursued austerity too and had severe depressions.

But, as a policy adviser to the Austrian government, whatever contractionary policies that Mises recommended and that were in fact followed were clearly disastrous.

To be fair, there may have been other factors that account for the depth of the depression in Austria: perhaps its banking system collapsed to a greater extent than other nations, and perhaps it was exposed to international trade to a far greater extent.

Still, the data makes you wonder.

The Great Depression in Eastern Europe: Selected Comparative Data on Real GDP

The Great Depression was a worldwide phenomenon, but its intensity and duration was highly variable. I have already looked at real GDP data in Western Europe during the depression here.

To make the treatment of Europe more complete, I have assembled below real GDP data for 6 Eastern European nations during the Great depression: Yugoslavia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria.

We can rank the real output loss in Eastern European nations from the most severe to the least severe, as follows:

Nation | Real GDP Loss | Years of Contraction
(1) Poland | -20.70% | 1930–1933
(2) Czechoslovakia | -18.19% | 1930–1935
(3) Yugoslavia | -13.69% | 1930 to 1932
(4) Bulgaria | -12.72% | 1934–1935
(5) Hungary | -9.36% | 1930–1932
(6) Romania | -5.57% | 1932
(7) Romania | -4.57% | 1929
(8) Bulgaria | -1.91% | 1929*

* The recession in Bulgaria in 1929 may not actually have been caused by the Great Depression, but by Bulgaria’s deflationary return to the Gold Standard in 1928.

The data for individual nations follows.

I. Yugoslavia

Real GDP in Yugoslavia, 1928–1945
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 18 381 |
1929 | 19 363 | 5.34%
1930 | 18 995 | -1.90%
1931 | 18 430 | -2.97%
1932 | 16 712 | -9.32%
1933 | 17 228 | 3.08%
1934 | 17 866 | 3.70%
1935 | 17 596 | -1.51%
1936 | 19 878 | 12.96%
1937 | 20 197 | 1.60%
1938 | 21 817 | 8.02%
1939 | 23 019 | 5.50%

There was a total contraction in GDP of -13.69% from 1930 to 1932

II. Romania

Real GDP in Romania, 1928–1945
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 16 850 |
1929 | 16 079 | -4.57%
1930 | 17 235 | 7.18%
1931 | 17 640 | 2.34%
1932 | 16 657 | -5.57%
1933 | 17 447 | 4.74%
1934 | 17 640 | 1.10%
1935 | 18 026 | 2.18%
1936 | 18 218 | 1.06%
1937 | 17 447 | -4.23%
1938 | 19 375 | 11.05%

Romania had moderately severe double dip recession, with a -4.57% contraction of GDP in 1929, and -5.57% in 1932.

III. Poland

Real GDP in Poland, 1928–1945
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1929 | 58 980 |
1930 | 56 247 | -4.63%
1931 | 52 177 | -7.23%
1932 | 48 107 | -7.80%
1933 | 46 771 | -2.77%
1934 | 47 439 | 1.42%
1935 | 48 107 | 1.40%
1936 | 49 504 | 2.90%
1937 | 58 980 | 19.14%
1938 | 67 788 | 14.93%

Poland had a real GDP loss of -20.70% from 1930 to 1933.

IV. Hungary

Real GDP in Hungary, 1928–1945
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 20 576 |
1929 | 21 250 | 3.27%
1930 | 20 789 | -2.16%
1931 | 19 786 | -4.82%
1932 | 19 260 | -2.65%
1933 | 21 003 | 9.04%
1934 | 21 135 | 0.62%
1935 | 22 204 | 5.05%
1936 | 23 684 | 6.66%
1937 | 23 158 | -2.22%
1938 | 24 342 | 5.11%
1939 | 26 184 | 7.56%
1940 | 24 391 | -6.84%
1941 | 24 539 | 0.60%
1942 | 25 773 | 5.02%

Hungary experienced a real GDP contraction of -9.36% between 1930 and 1932.

V. Czechoslovakia

Real GDP in Czechoslovakia, 1928–1945
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1928 | 41 106
1929 | 42 240 | 2.75%
1930 | 40 856 | -3.27%
1931 | 39 468 | -3.39%
1932 | 37 886 | -4.00%
1933 | 36 276 | -4.24%
1934 | 34 889 | -3.82%
1935 | 34 556 | -0.95%
1936 | 37 387 | 8.192%
1937 | 41 578 | 11.20%

Czechoslovakia had a real GDP loss of -18.19% from 1930 to 1935. The duration of depression was unusually severe.

VI. Bulgaria

Real GDP in Bulgaria, 1928–1945
* in millions of international Geary-Khamis dollars
1927 | 7 274 |
1928 | 7 160 | -1.56%
1929 | 7 023 | -1.91%
1930 | 7 741 | 10.22%
1931 | 8 876 | 14.66%
1932 | 8 933 | 0.64%
1933 | 9 084 | 1.69%
1934 | 8 308 | -8.54%
1935 | 7 928 | -4.57%
1936 | 9 659 | 21.83%
1937 | 10 204 | 5.64%
1938 | 10 470 | 2.60%
1939 | 10 599 | 1.23%
1940 | 10 319 | -2.64%
1941 | 10 520 | 1.94%
1942 | 10 018 | -4.77%

Bulgaria’s Great Depression was preceded by real output collapse caused by the return to the gold standard in 1928 at too high a level and by government fiscal austerity.

Still, the real output fall in 1929 was a mild -1.91%, and this may have been caused by the deflationary policies implemented from 1928.

The really serious collapse came from 1934 to 1935 at -12.72%.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Maddison, Angus. 2003. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing, Paris.