Davis on US Recessions in the 19th Century

Joseph H. Davis (2006) presents a new list of recessions in the 19th century, on the basis of his annual dataset of US industrial production from 1796 to 1915.

Davis uses 43 annual components of the manufacturing and mining industries in the US, which represented about 90% of manufacturing output in the 1800s (Davis 2006: 105).

While Davis’s recession list is based on real manufacturing output, not real GDP, it presents an interesting addition to Balke and Gordon (1989).

US Recessions in the 19th Century
Years (Peak–Trough) | Recession Length (years)
1796–1798 | less than 1
1802–1803 | less than 1
1807–1808 | less than 2
1811–1812 |
1815–1816 |
1822–1823 |
1828–1829 |
1833–1834 |
1836–1837 | less than 1
1839–1840 | less than 3
1856–1858 |
1860–1861 |
1864–1865 | less than 2
1873–1875 | less than 3
1883–1885 | 1
1892–1894 |
1895–1896 |
1903–1904 |
1907–1908
(Davis 2006: 106).

Most interesting here is Davis’s finding that the US had a recession from 1873 to 1875 lasting less than 3 years, since unemployment was rising in these years and continued rising until 1878.

Davis shows a recession from 1883–1885, which is not found by Balke and Gordon (1989: 84).

But Balke and Gordon (1989: 84) also show a recession in 1888, which does not show up in Davis’s data.

All this should alert us to how questionable is the whole project of real GNP/GDP estimates for the 19th century.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Balke, N. S., and R. J. Gordon, 1989. “The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence,” Journal of Political Economy 97.1: 38–92.

Davis, J. H. 2006. “An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790s,” Journal of Economic History 66.1: 103–121.