Sunday, July 7, 2013

Lars P. Syll on Probability and Economics

Lars P. Syll has a great series of posts on his blog on the subject of probability theory and probability and economics, which should be required reading for anyone interested in this subject:
Lars P. Syll, “Why Expected Utility Theory is an Ex-Parrot (wonkish),” 14 July, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Bayesianism and Noninformative Priors – Lost Causes (wonkish),” 14 July, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Statistical Inference in a “Large World,” 12 July, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Why assuming Ergodicity makes Economics totally Irrelevant,” 11 July, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Parallel Universe and Time in Finance and Economics (wonkish),” 5 July, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Non-Ergodicity and Human Ensembles,” 5 July, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Causality and the Limits of Statistical Inference,” 2 July, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Non-Ergodicity and Time Irreversibility (wonkish),” 30 June, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Regression to the Mean – When Causes Trump Statistics,” 30 June, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Economics and Probability,” 27 June, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Markov’s Inequality,” 12 June, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Chebyshev’s Inequality Theorem,” 12 June, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “What is Randomness?,” 28 May, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “On the Impossibility of Predicting the Future,” 28 May, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Probabilities – From Where do we get Them?,” 8 May, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Modern Econometrics – A Critical Realist Critique (wonkish),” 7 May, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Probabilistic Reasoning and its Limits (wonkish),” 13 April, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Ergodicity – Probabilistic Thinking gone Awry,” 5 April, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “The Limits to Probabilistic Reasoning,” 19 March, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Ergodicity and the Law of Large Numbers (wonkish),” 5 March, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “What’s Wrong with Bayesianism (II),” 4 March, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “What’s Wrong with Bayesian Probability?,” 2 March, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Bayesian Decision Theory – A Critique,” 26 February, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “On Bayesianism, Uncertainty and Consistency in ‘Large Worlds’,” 25 February, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “On Probabilism and Statistics,” 8 February, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “On the Non-Equivalence of Keynesian and Knightian Uncertainty (wonkish),” 5 February, 2013.

“Keynes on Statistics and Evidential Weight,” 25 January, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “How do we Attach Probabilities to the World?,” 18 January, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Probability and Economics,” 17 January, 2013.

Lars P. Syll, “Markov’s Inequality,” 18 December, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “The Arrow of Time and the Importance of Time Averages and Non-Ergodicity (wonkish),” 31 October, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Keynes vs. Bayes on Information and Uncertainty (wonkish),” 20 October, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Did Frank Ramsey really make Keynes change his View on Probability? (wonkish),” 12 September, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “von Wright’s critique of Ramsey’s Bayesianism (wonkish),” 31 August, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Keynes and Knight on Uncertainty – Ontology vs. Epistemology,” 29 July, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Dutch Books, Money Pumps and Bayesianism,” 25 June, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “One of the Reasons I’m a Keynesian and not a Bayesian,” 12 June, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Statistical Models and Causal Inference,” 11 June, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Bayesian Probability – A Primer,” 10 June, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Randomness, Fat Tails and Ergodicity – a Keynesian Perspective on Knightian Uncertainty,” 9 June, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “So you Think you’re Rational? I bet you’re not!,” 15 May, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Risk and Uncertainty,” 8 May, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Keynes and Bayes in Paradise,” 5 May, 2012.

Lars P. Syll, “Probabilistic Econometrics – Science without Foundations (part I),” 21 February, 2012.

9 comments:

  1. Thank you so much. Would have missed this. Looks like I'm not going to get anything else done today! ;-)

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    1. I'm always amazed how bad most economists are at using statistical techniques.

      But then again their entire world revolves around just assuming the starting conditions, so I suppose they believe they can use any statistical technique any time they want.



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  2. Hey, LK, here's a few thoughts on Syll's series so far. It touches on some stuff we've discussed in the past:

    http://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/born-blind-lars-syll-uncertainty-and-the-question-of-truth-versus-relativism/

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    1. Great post. I like this summing up:

      "This seems to me a very good distinction between the two world views. The Knightian universe is one in which the possibility for knowledge of truly uncertain entities potentially exists, while the Keynesian universe is one in which the possibility for knowledge of truly uncertain entities is a priori ruled out. "

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    2. Also, just linked to your blog and post here:

      http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2013/07/philip-pilkington-blog-fixing-economists.html

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    3. Lars-P Syll:
      "Great thanx to Lord Keynes – writing on one of my favourite blogs – who made this marvellous and handy collocation of some of my posts concerning probability and economics!"
      http://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2013/07/09/lord-keynes-on-yours-truly-on-probability-and-economics/

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  3. Thank you Lord Keynes,this is splendid!

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  4. So what's with the recent return to probability theory at long last, Lord Keynes?

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