Real US GNP Growth Rates 1870–1913 in Balke and Gordon

Balke and Gordon’s (1989: 84) estimates for GNP are here (although I list the figures until 1916 as well, and GNP growth rates are my own calculations):

Year | GNP* | Growth Rate
1869 | 78.2 |
1870 | $84.2 | 7.67%
1871 | $88.1 | 4.63%
1872 | $91.7 | 4.08%
1873 | $96.3 | 5.01%
1874 | $95.7 | -0.62%
1875 | $100.7 | 5.22%
1876 | $101.9 | 1.19%
1877 | $105.2 | 3.23%
1878 | $109.6 | 4.18%
1879 | $123.1 | 12.31%
1880 | $137.6 | 11.77%
1881 | $142.5 | 3.56%
1882 | $151.6 | 6.38%
1883 | $155.3 | 2.44%
1884 | $158.1 | 1.80%
1885 | $159.3 | 0.75%
1886 | $164.1 | 3.01%
1887 | $171.5 | 4.50%
1888 | $170.7 | -0.46%
1889 | $181.3 | 6.20%
1890 | $183.9 | 1.43%
1891 | $189.9 | 3.26%
1892 | $198.8 | 4.68%
1893 | $198.7 | -0.05%
1894 | $192.9 | -2.91%
1895 | $215.5 | 11.7%
1896 | $210.6 | -2.27
1897 | $227.8 | 8.16%
1898 | $233.2 | 2.37%
1899 | $260.3 | 11.6%
1900 | $265.4 | 1.95%
1901 | $297.9 | 12.2%
1902 | $303.0 | 1.71%
1903 | $311.7 | 2.87%
1904 | $323.5 | 3.78%
1905 | $353.2 | 9.18%
1906 | $367.7 | 4.10%
1907 | $362.0 | -1.55%
1908 | $342.2 | -5.46%
1909 | $382.1 | 11.65%
1910 | $383.8 | 0.44%
1911 | $396.0 | 3.17%
1912 | $418.9 | 5.78%
1913 | $435.4 | 3.93%
1914 | $402.4 | -7.57%
1915 | $417.3 | 3.70%
1916 | $485.0 | 16.2%
* Billions of 1982 dollars

Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1913: 4.06%.
(Balke and Gordon 1989: 84).

Some points:

(1) Comparison of the averages:

Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1900: 4.08%.
Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1913: 4.06%.

(2) The rate for the twentieth century:

Average real GNP growth rate, 1900–1913: 3.84%.

(3) From 1907 to 1908, GNP contracted by 6.93%. This was a very severe recession. The corresponding recession in traditional data runs from May 1907–June 1908. This recession was made worse by the financial crisis called the Panic of 1907 (or 1907 Bankers’ Panic), one of the worst of the various financial crises that happened in 1873, 1884, 1890, and 1893.

(4) A comparison of decade rates in Balke and Gordon:

Average real GNP growth rate, 1871–1880: 5.10%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1881–1890: 2.96%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1891–1900: 3.85%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1901–1910: 3.89%.

(5) Recessions are in yellow highlighting, but this annual data conceals recessions lasting two or three quarters within some years. If we had reliable quarterly data, there would undoubtedly be more recessions.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Balke, N. S., and R. J. Gordon, 1989. “The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence,” Journal of Political Economy 97.1: 38–92.