Real US GNP Growth Rates 1870–1900 in Romer

To compare the figures I used in the last post (from Balke and Gordon), we can now cite Romer’s estimates here (I have added the annual growth rates by my own calculation):

Year GNP* Growth Rate
1869 75.609
1870 $76.464 1.13%
1871 $76.952 0.638%
1872 $89.605 16.4%
1873 $94.863 5.86%
1874 $96.205 1.414%
1875 $97.684 1.53%
1876 $104.628 7.10%
1877 $110.797 5.89%
1878 $118.906 7.31%
1879 $127.675 7.37%
1880 $139.990 9.64%
1881 $143.580 2.56%
1882 $149.307 3.98%
1883 $152.097 1.86%
1884 $155.684 2.35%
1885 $157.789 1.35%
1886 $164.375 4.17%
1887 $169.453 3.08%
1888 $168.940 -0.3%
1889 $175.030 3.60%
1890 $182.964 4.53%
1891 $191.757 4.80%
1892 $204.279 6.53%
1893 $202.616 -0.81%
1894 $200.819 -0.88%
1895 $215.668 7.39%
1896 $221.438 2.67%
1897 $233.655 5.51%
1898 $241.459 3.33%
1899 $254.728 5.49%
1900 $264.540 3.85%
* Billions of 1982 dollars

Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1900: 4.17%.
(Romer 1989: 22).

What is notable in Romer’s figures is the following:

(1) Romer’s average real GNP growth rate for 1870–1900 was 4.17%, which is slightly higher than the figure of 4.08% from the estimates of Balke and Gordon (1989: 84).

(2) The average rates per decade are as follows (with additional measures for the 1870s, since that decade is of interest in previous discussion):

Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1879: 5.46%.
Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1880: 5.84%.
Average real GNP growth rate, 1871–1880: 6.32%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1881–1890: 2.72%.
Average real GNP growth rate, 1891–1900: 3.79%.

The 1870s were the decade with the strongest growth as measured from 1871–1880 (the technical definition of the decade). The 1880s had unusually low growth, worse than the 1890s.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Balke, N. S., and R. J. Gordon, 1989. “The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence,” Journal of Political Economy 97.1: 38–92.

Romer, C. D. 1989. “The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869–1908,” Journal of Political Economy 97.1: 1–37.