Proof below, from the indefatigable Peter Schiff, who, along with other Austrians, is also blessed with being impervious to empirical reality.
Apparently, the US is headed for currency collapse and hyperinflation in 2015, even though similar predictions failed to materialise in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014.
Meanwhile, in the real world, at the MIT Billion Prices Project, which gives us an independent measure of US inflation, we can see no spike in inflation, and in fact very low inflation with a disinflationary trend.
There is, furthermore, real fear that deflation might reappear in major Western economies in 2015, as can be seen here and here.
In my humble opinion, the real crisis in 2015 might come from the Eurozone, not the US, as the Greek renegotiation of debt and attempts to end austerity might throw that rotten neoliberal currency union into disarray.
Investors might flee to US bonds and assets, making the US a much more attractive place to put money in 2015. Needless to say, this would make any predictions of a US dollar collapse in 2015 absurd, but I suppose Austrians have never let good sense get in the way of another crazy doomsday prediction.
"even though similar predictions failed to materialise in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014"
ReplyDeleteToo tired to look it up, but I'm pretty sure I remember Schiff also predicting hyperinflation in 2009 in a number of media appearances, including one with Jon Stewart. The first I heard of Schiff was during an argument with a friend who is lamentably a Rothbardian, and I think that may have been in late 2008, with the same hyper inflationary predictions due to the bailout. Plus ca change...
If you want to understand how sudden inflation happens read this and follow the link at the end.
ReplyDeletehttp://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2014/08/positive-feedback-theory-of.html
The US is not Weimar Germany, and the idea of "sudden" hyperinflation extremely improbable.
ReplyDeleteBut I suspect arguments, evidence and rationality make no difference to cultish people who have predicted hyperinflation for years and years but been wrong every damn time.
I don't see a mechanism for getting preposterous amounts of money into the hands of ordinary people any way, when businesses in the U.S. keep trying to cut their wage costs and lobbying for more immigration to push wages down further.
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