Real US GDP 1870–2001

The data below come from Maddison (2003):

Real US GDP 1870–2001
(in millions of 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
Year | GDP | Growth rate
1870 | 98,374 |
1871 | 102,289 | 3.980%
1872 | 106,360 | 3.981%
1873 | 110,593 | 3.981%
1874 | 114,994 | 3.979%
1875 | 119,571 | 3.980%
1876 | 124,330 | 3.980%
1877 | 129,278 | 3.980%
1878 | 134,423 | 3.980%
1879 | 139,772 | 3.979%
1880 | 145,335 | 3.980%
1881 | 151,119 | 3.980%
1882 | 157,133 | 3.980%
1883 | 163,387 | 3.980%
1884 | 169,889 | 3.979%
1885 | 176,651 | 3.980%
1886 | 183,681 | 3.979%
1887 | 190,991 | 3.980%
1888 | 198,592 | 3.980%
1889 | 206,496 | 3.980%
1890 | 214,714 | 3.980%
1891 | 224,027 | 4.337%
1892 | 245,757 | 9.700%
1893 | 233,857 | -4.842%
1894 | 227,131 | -2.876%
1895 | 254,552 | 12.073%
1896 | 249,379 | -2.032%
1897 | 273,178 | 9.543%
1898 | 278,869 | 2.083%
1899 | 304,221 | 9.091%
1900 | 312,499 | 2.721%
1901 | 347,681 | 11.258%
1902 | 351,303 | 1.042%
1903 | 368,377 | 4.860%
1904 | 363,720 | -1.264%
1905 | 390,624 | 7.396%
1906 | 435,636 | 11.523%
1907 | 442,362 | 1.544%
1908 | 406,146 | -8.190%
1909 | 455,814 | 12.229%
1910 | 460,471 | 1.022%
1911 | 475,475 | 3.258%
1912 | 497,722 | 4.679%
1913 | 517,383 | 3.950%
1914 | 477,545 | -7.700%
1915 | 490,996 | 2.817%
1916 | 558,774 | 13.804%
1917 | 544,804 | -2.500%
1918 | 593,956 | 9.021%
1919 | 599,130 | 0.871%
1920 | 593,438 | -0.950%
1921 | 579,986 | -2.267%
1922 | 612,064 | 5.531%
1923 | 692,776 | 13.187%
1924 | 713,989 | 3.0620%
1925 | 730,545 | 2.319%
1926 | 778,144 | 6.515%
1927 | 785,905 | 0.997%
1928 | 794,700 | 1.119%
1929 | 843,334 | 6.120%
1930 | 768,314 | -8.896%
1931 | 709,332 | -7.677%
1932 | 615,686 | -13.202%
1933 | 602,751 | -2.101%
1934 | 649,316 | 7.725%
1935 | 698,984 | 7.649%
1936 | 798,322 | 14.212%
1937 | 832,469 | 4.277%
1938 | 799,357 | -3.977%
1939 | 862,995 | 7.961%
1940 | 929,737 | 7.734%
1941 | 1,098,921 | 18.197%
1942 | 1,318,809 | 20.009%
1943 | 1,581,122 | 19.890%
1944 | 1,713,572 | 8.377%
1945 | 1,644,761 | -4.016%
1946 | 1,305,357 | -20.635%
1947 | 1,285,697 | -1.506%
1948 | 1,334,331 | 3.782%
1949 | 1,339,505 | 0.388%
1950 | 1,455,916 | 8.690%
1951 | 1,566,784 | 7.615%
1952 | 1,625,245 | 3.731%
1953 | 1,699,970 | 4.598%
1954 | 1,688,804 | -0.657%
1955 | 1,808,126 | 7.065%
1956 | 1,843,455 | 1.953%
1957 | 1,878,063 | 1.877%
1958 | 1,859,088 | -1.010%
1959 | 1,997,061 | 7.421%
1960 | 2,046,727 | 2.487%
1961 | 2,094,396 | 2.329%
1962 | 2,220,732 | 6.032%
1963 | 2,316,765 | 4.324%
1964 | 2,450,915 | 5.790%
1965 | 2,607,294 | 6.380%
1966 | 2,778,086 | 6.550%
1967 | 2,847,549 | 2.500%
1968 | 2,983,081 | 4.756%
1969 | 3,076,517 | 3.132%
1970 | 3,081,900 | 0.175%
1971 | 3,178,106 | 3.122%
1972 | 3,346,554 | 5.300%
1973 | 3,536,622 | 5.679%
1974 | 3,526,724 | -0.280%
1975 | 3,516,825 | -0.280%
1976 | 3,701,163 | 5.242%
1977 | 3,868,829 | 4.530%
1978 | 4,089,548 | 5.705%
1979 | 4,228,647 | 3.401%
1980 | 4,230,558 | 0.045%
1981 | 4,336,141 | 2.496%
1982 | 4,254,870 | -1.874%
1983 | 4,433,129 | 4.189%
1984 | 4,755,958 | 7.282%
1985 | 4,940,383 | 3.878%
1986 | 5,110,480 | 3.443%
1987 | 5,290,129 | 3.515%
1988 | 5,512,845 | 4.210%
1989 | 5,703,521 | 3.459%
1990 | 5,803,200 | 1.748%
1991 | 5,775,948 | -0.470%
1992 | 5,952,089 | 3.049%
1993 | 6,110,061 | 2.654%
1994 | 6,356,710 | 4.037%
1995 | 6,526,361 | 2.669%
1996 | 6,759,427 | 3.571%
1997 | 7,046,304 | 4.244%
1998 | 7,349,878 | 4.308%
1999 | 7,651,223 | 4.100%
2000 | 7,941,969 | 3.800%
2001 | 7,965,795 | 0.300%
(Maddison 2003: 84–86).

There is one difficulty in the data.

The sources of Maddison for the 1870 to 1914 period are as follows:

(1) 1869 to 1890: Balke and Gordon 1989;

(2) 1890 to 1914: from Kendrick 1961: 298–299 (with 1928 weights).

We can see the problem when we look at Balke and Gordon’s estimates for GNP from 1870 to 1890, with the annual growth rates following:

Year | GNP* | Growth Rate
* Billions of 1982 dollars
1869 | 78.2 |
1870 | $84.2 | 7.67%
1871 | $88.1 | 4.63%
1872 | $91.7 | 4.08%
1873 | $96.3 | 5.01%
1874 | $95.7 | -0.62%
1875 | $100.7 | 5.22%
1876 | $101.9 | 1.19%
1877 | $105.2 | 3.23%
1878 | $109.6 | 4.18%
1879 | $123.1 | 12.31%
1880 | $137.6 | 11.77%
1881 | $142.5 | 3.56%
1882 | $151.6 | 6.38%
1883 | $155.3 | 2.44%
1884 | $158.1 | 1.80%
1885 | $159.3 | 0.75%
1886 | $164.1 | 3.01%
1887 | $171.5 | 4.50%
1888 | $170.7 | -0.46%
1889 | $181.3 | 6.20%
1890 | $183.9 | 1.43%
(Balke and Gordon 1989: 84).

It is obvious these are different from the growth rates calculated from data as it stands in Maddison for 1870 to 1890. Maddison has simply given the growth rate as 3.980% for all these years.

It is unclear what the explanation is for this discrepancy.

From 1890 to 1914, the growth rates calculated from Maddison’s data normally do not deviate too far from those calculated from Balke and Gordon (with a few exceptions).

In view of this, I give GDP averages below for this period calculated from both Maddison’s and Balke and Gordon’s data.

In order to assess the data, we can look at a number of special periods selected for their historical significance, as follows:

Average annual real GDP rate 1871–1913 (Maddison): 4.034%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1913 (Balke and Gordon): 4.06%
Average annual real GDP rate 1873–1896 (Maddison): 3.666%
Average real GNP growth rate, 1873–1896 (Balke and Gordon): 3.596%
Roaring Twenties 1922–1929: 4.856%
Recovery from Depression: 1934–1940: 6.511%
World War II average annual growth rate: 12.491%
Average annual real GDP rate 1948–1973: 4.000%
Average annual real GDP rate 1950–1973: 4.160%
Average annual real GDP rate 1983–1989 (Reagan boom): 4.282%
Average annual real GDP rate 1974–2001: 2.963%.

The 1870 to 1913 period represents the Classical Gold Standard Era.

The 1873 to 1896 era was the period of near continuous deflation in the late 19th century.

The 1934 to 1940 period represents the recovery from the Great Depression under Roosevelt.

The golden age of capitalism is usually taken to be from 1946–1973, but it is better to remove the immediate post-war years in which the economy was adjusting from a wartime command economy back to a peacetime economy in the anomalous recession that occurred from 1945–1947, so that we can reckon it as 1948–1973. Other economists actually reckon the “golden age of capitalism” as 1950–1973, so I have given this well for the sake of completeness.

The neoliberal era can be given as 1974–2001, though admittedly it is not complete since Maddison’s data does not go beyond 2001.

To look at the rates of growth in various periods, we can rank them from the highest to lowest below:

(1) World War II average annual growth rate: 12.491%
(2) Recovery from Depression: 1934–1940: 6.511%
(3) Roaring Twenties 1922–1929: 4.856%
(4) Average annual real GDP rate 1983–1989 (Reagan boom): 4.282%
(5) Average annual real GDP rate 1950–1973: 4.160%
(6) Average real GNP growth rate, 1870–1913 (Balke and Gordon): 4.06%
(7) Average annual real GDP rate 1871–1913 (Maddison): 4.034%
(8) Average annual real GDP rate 1948–1973: 4.000%
(9) Average annual real GDP rate 1873–1896 (Maddison): 3.666%
(10) Average annual real GNP growth rate, 1873–1896 (Balke and Gordon): 3.596%
(11) Average annual real GDP rate 1974–2001: 2.963%.

The highest average annual GDP growth rate in American history was actually during WWII, and of course this represented the huge surge in the production of war matériel.

The second highest period was during the recovery under Roosevelt, who, as we know pursued a moderate Keynesian stimulus program.

The third highest was, interestingly, the Roaring Twenties, if we calculate this as 1922–1929.

The fourth highest was the boom under Reagan, whose economic policy was, despite the rhetoric, a type of Keynesianism, involving tax cuts and increased deficit spending.

The fifth highest was the golden age of capitalism, if we calculate this as 1950 to 1973, the high tide of Keynesian economics in the United States.

Next comes the gold standard era as calculated from Maddison or Balke and Gordon’s data, the era in which the US was rapidly industrialising.

If one calculates the golden age of capitalism as 1948 to 1973 then this would be only slightly below 1871–1913.

The next historical period was the great deflation from 1873–1896, which actually stands out as the second worst of the data.

In the whole neoliberal era (the 1990s included but not data for 2002–2013) the average annual GDP growth rate slumped in a remarkable manner, which hardly bodes well for that period or the economic policies of most governments as they abandoned the full employment policies of the golden age.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Balke, N. S., and R. J. Gordon, 1989. “The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence,” Journal of Political Economy 97.1: 38–92.

Kendrick, J. W. 1961. Productivity Trends in the United States, Princeton University Press, Princeton.

Maddison, Angus. 2003. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing, Paris.