UK Real Per Capita GDP 1830–1913

This data is from Maddison (2003: 59, 61) and is very interesting because it has suggested to many economists that something went “wrong” with the late Victorian economy:

Real UK Per Capita GDP 1830–1913
(in 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
Year | GDP | Growth rate
1830 | 1,749 |
1831 | 1,811 | 3.5449%
1832 | 1,774 | -2.0431%
1833 | 1,774 | 0%
1834 | 1,828 | 3.0441%
1835 | 1,906 | 4.2669%
1836 | 1,957 | 2.6758%
1837 | 1,912 | -2.2994%
1838 | 1,996 | 4.3933%
1839 | 2,069 | 3.6573%
1840 | 1,990 | -3.8183%
1841 | 1,930 | -3.0151%
1842 | 1,869 | -3.1606%
1843 | 1,886 | 0.9096%
1844 | 1,981 | 5.0371%
1845 | 2,067 | 4.3412%
1846 | 2,185 | 5.7087%
1847 | 2,213 | 1.2815%
1848 | 2,272 | 2.6661%
1849 | 2,334 | 2.7289%
1850 | 2,330 | -0.1714%
1851 | 2,451 | 5.1931%
1852 | 2,480 | 1.1832%
1853 | 2,555 | 3.0242%
1854 | 2,602 | 1.8395%
1855 | 2,571 | -1.1914%
1856 | 2,730 | 6.1844%
1857 | 2,757 | 0.9890%
1858 | 2,742 | -0.5441%
1859 | 2,790 | 1.7505%
1860 | 2,830 | 1.4337%
1861 | 2,884 | 1.9081%
1862 | 2,880 | -0.1387%
1863 | 2,881 | 0.0347%
1864 | 2,935 | 1.8743%
1865 | 3,001 | 2.2487%
1866 | 3,023 | 0.7331%
1867 | 2,968 | -1.8194%
1868 | 3,037 | 2.3248%
1869 | 3,031 | -0.1976%
1870 | 3,190 | 5.2458%
1871 | 3,332 | 4.4514%
1872 | 3,319 | -0.3901%
1873 | 3,365 | 1.3859%
1874 | 3,386 | 0.6241%
1875 | 3,434 | 1.4176%
1876 | 3,430 | -0.1165%
1877 | 3,425 | -0.1458%
1878 | 3,403 | -0.6423%
1879 | 3,353 | -1.4693%
1880 | 3,477 | 3.6982%
1881 | 3,568 | 2.6172%
1882 | 3,643 | 2.1020%
1883 | 3,643 | 0%
1884 | 3,622 | -0.5764%
1885 | 3,574 | -1.3252%
1886 | 3,600 | 0.7275%
1887 | 3,713 | 3.1389%
1888 | 3,849 | 3.6628%
1889 | 4,024 | 4.5466%
1890 | 4,009 | -0.3728%
1891 | 3,975 | -0.8481%
1892 | 3,846 | -3.2453%
1893 | 3,811 | -0.9100%
1894 | 4,029 | 5.7203%
1895 | 4,118 | 2.2091%
1896 | 4,249 | 3.1811%
1897 | 4,264 | 0.3530%
1898 | 4,428 | 3.8461%
1899 | 4,567 | 3.1391%
1900 | 4,492 | -1.6422%
1901 | 4,450 | -0.9351%
1902 | 4,525 | 1.6854%
1903 | 4,440 | -1.8784%
1904 | 4,428 | -0.2703%
1905 | 4,520 | 2.0777%
1906 | 4,631 | 2.4557%
1907 | 4,679 | 1.0365%
1908 | 4,449 | -4.9156%
1909 | 4,511 | 1.3936%
1910 | 4,611 | 2.2168%
1911 | 4,709 | 2.1253%
1912 | 4,762 | 1.1255%
1913 | 4,921 | 3.3389%
(Maddison 2003: 59, 61).

There were three periods into which mid- and late Victorian history is divided by historians and economic historians:

(1) the mid-Victorian inflationary boom from 1848/1850 to 1873;

(2) the period of deflation from 1873 to 1896;

(3) the inflationary boom leading up to the First World War from 1897 to 1913.

It is notable that the average real capita GDP growth rate seems to have fallen in these three periods that characterised the mid- and late-Victorian age:

Average per capita GDP Growth Rate 1848–1873: 1.6441%
Average per capita GDP Growth Rate 1850–1873: 1.5563%
Average per capita GDP Growth Rate 1874–1896: 1.0432%
Average per capita GDP Growth Rate 1873–1896: 1.057%
Average per capita GDP Growth Rate 1897–1913: 0.8912%

The research literature on whether and why the late Victorian economy failed is enormous (for a sample of some studies, see Ashworth 1966; McCloskey 1970; Crafts 1979; Crouzet 1982; Saul 1985; Foreman-Peck 1991; Lloyd-Jones and Lewis 1998), and those who think it did fail in some sense have suggested these reasons for the decline:

(1) decreased domestic investment from profit deflation and depressed expectations in the 1873 to 1896 period;

(2) decreasing export markets owing to the rise of the US and Germany and foreign competition;

(3) increasing British foreign investment at the expense of domestic investment, and

(4) an actual productivity decline from 1899–1913.

Of course, one would think that factor (1) come to an end in the inflation from 1897 onwards (and I believe there is evidence that domestic investment recovered at least to some extent), but there were other reasons that conspired to cause a continuing trend of lower real per capita GDP rates in the 1897–1913 era.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Ashworth, W. 1966. “The Late Victorian Economy,” Economica n.s. 33.129: 17–33.

Crafts, N. F. R. 1979. “Victorian Britain Did Fail,” The Economic History Review n.s. 32.4: 533–537.

Crouzet, François. 1982. The Victorian Economy (trans. Anthony Forster). Routledge, London.

Foreman-Peck, James. 1991. New Perspectives on the Late Victorian Economy: Essays in Quantitative Economic History, 1860–1914. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York.

Lloyd-Jones, Roger and M. J. Lewis. 1998. British Industrial Capitalism since the Industrial Revolution. UCL Press, London and Bristol, Pa.

McCloskey, Donald N. 1970. “Did Victorian Britain Fail?,” The Economic History Review n.s. 23.3: 446–459.

Maddison, Angus. 2003. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing, Paris.

Saul, Samuel Berrick. 1985. The Myth of the Great Depression, 1873–1896 (2nd edn.), Macmillan, London.