Below is an updated bibliography on uncertainty in Post Keynesian economics.
BOOKS AND BOOK CHAPTERS
Barkley Rosser, J. 2001. “Uncertainty and Expectations,” in R. P. F. Holt and S. Pressman (eds), 2001. A New Guide to Post Keynesian Economics. Routledge, London and New York. 52–64.
Boylan, Tom and Paschal O’Gorman. “Post-Keynesian Economics, Rationality, and Conventions,” in G. C. Harcourt and Peter Kriesler (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Post-Keynesian Economics. Volume 2: Critiques and Methodology. Oxford University Press, New York. 62–79.
Davidson, P. 2004. “Uncertainty and Monetary Policy,” in P. Mooslechner, H. Schuberth, M. Schürz (eds), Economic Policy under Uncertainty: The Role of Truth and Accountability in Policy Advice. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA.
Dunn, S. P. 2008. The ‘Uncertain’ Foundations of Post Keynesian Economics. Routledge, London.
Dunn, S. P. 2012. “Non-Ergodicity,” in J. E. King (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Post Keynesian Economics (2nd edn.). Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA. 434–439.
Gerrard, B. 1994. “Animal Spirits,” in P. Arestis and M. Sawyer (eds), The Elgar Companion to Radical Political Economy. Elgar, Aldershot. 15–19.
Glickman, M. 2003. “Uncertainty,” in J. E. King (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Post Keynesian Economics. E. Elgar Pub., Cheltenham, UK and Northhampton, MA. 366–370.
King, J. E. 2002. A History of Post Keynesian Economics since 1936. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA. Chapter 9, pp. 181–202.
Langlois, R. 1994. “Risk and Uncertainty,” in Peter J. Boettke (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Austrian Economics. E. Elgar, Aldershot. 118–122.
McCann, Charles R. 1994. Probability Foundations of Economic Theory. Routledge, London.
O’Donnell, Rod. 2013. “Two Post-Keynesian Approaches to Uncertainty and Irreducible Uncertainty,” in G. C. Harcourt and Peter Kriesler (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Post-Keynesian Economics. Volume 2: Critiques and Methodology. Oxford University Press, New York. 124–142.
Runde, Jochen. 2000. “Shackle on Probability,” in Stephen F. Frowen and Peter Earl (eds.), Economics as an Art of Thought: Essays in Memory of G. L. S. Shackle. Routledge, New York.
Shackle, George L. S. 1955. Uncertainty in Economics and Other Reflections. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Skidelsky, R. 2009. Keynes: The Return of the Master. Perseus Books Group, New York. Chapter 4.
Voss, Stefan. 2012. “When Keynes and Minsky meet Mandelbrot …,” in Jesper Jespersen and Mogens Ove Madsen (eds.), Keynes’s General Theory for Today: Contemporary Perspectives. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. 113–130.
ARTICLES
Barkley Rosser, J. 2001. “Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspectives on Uncertainty and Expectations,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 23.4: 545–566.
Brady, Michael Emmett. “The Economic Consequences of G. L. S. Shackle’s Ignorance of Keynes’s Theory of Probability, Uncertainty, and Decision Making,” SSRN paper
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2309259
Crocco, M. 2002. “The Concept of Degrees of Uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle, and Davidson,” Nova Economia 12.2: 11–28.
Davidson, P. 1982–1983. “Rational Expectations: A Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision Making Processes,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 5.2: 182–198.
Davidson, P. 1988. “A Technical Definition of Uncertainty and the Long Run Non-Neutrality of Money,” Cambridge Journal of Economics 12: 329–337.
Davidson, P. 1991. “Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5.1: 129–143.
Davidson, P. 1993. “The Elephant and the Butterfly: Or Hysteresis and Post Keynesian Economics,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 15.3: 309–322.
Davidson, P. 1996. “Reality and Economic Theory,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 18.4: 479–508.
Davidson, P. 2010. “Black Swans and Knight’s Epistemological Uncertainty: Are These Concepts also Underlying Behavioral and Post-Walrasian Theory?” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 32.4: 567–570.
Dempster, G. M. 1999. “Austrians and Post Keynesians: The Questions of Ignorance and Uncertainty,” Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics 2.4: 73–81.
Dequech, D. 1999. “Expectations and Confidence under Uncertainty,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 21.3: 415–430.
Dequech, David. 2000. “Fundamental Uncertainty and Ambiguity,” Eastern Economic Journal 26.1: 41–60.
Dequech, David. 2008. “Varieties of Uncertainty: A Survey of the Economic Literature,”
http://ideas.repec.org/p/anp/en2008/200807211223070.html
Dequech, David. 2011. “Uncertainty: A Typology and Refinements of Existing Concepts,” Journal of Economic Issues 45.3: 621–640.
Dixon, R. 1986. “Uncertainty, Unobstructedness, and Power,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 8.4: 585–590.
Dunn, S. P. 2001. “Bounded Rationality is not Fundamental Uncertainty: A Post Keynesian Perspective,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 23.4: 567–587.
Feduzi, Alberto, Runde, Jochen and Carlo Zappia. 2014. “De Finetti on Uncertainty,” Cambridge Journal of Economics 38.1: 1–21.
Ferderer, J. P. 1993. “Does Uncertainty Affect Investment Spending?” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 16.1: 19–35.
Ferrari-Filho, F. and O. A. Camargo Conceição. 2005. “The Concept of Uncertainty in Post Keynesian Theory and in Institutional Economics,” Journal of Economic Issues 39.3: 579–594.
Fontana, G. and B. Gerrard, 2004. “A Post Keynesian Theory of Decision Making Under Uncertainty,” Journal of Economic Psychology 25: 619–637.
Glickman, M. 1994. “The Concept of Information, Intractable Uncertainty, and the Current State of the ‘Efficient Markets’ Theory: A Post Keynesian View,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 16.3: 325–349.
Hodgson, Geoffrey M. 2011. “The Eclipse of the Uncertainty Concept in Mainstream Economics,” Journal of Economic Issues 45.1: 159–175.
Hoogduin, L. 1987. “On the Difference between the Keynesian, Knightian and the ‘Classical’ Analysis of Uncertainty and the Development of a More General Monetary Theory,” De Economist 135.1: 52–65.
Keynes, J. M. 1937. “The General Theory of Employment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 51: 209–223.
Koppl, R. 1991. “Retrospectives: Animal Spirits,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5.3: 203–210.
Kregel, J. A. 1976. “Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians,” Economic Journal 86.342: 209–225.
Lawson, T. 1985. “Uncertainty and Economic Analysis,” Economic Journal 95: 909–927.
Lawson, T. 1988. “Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 11.1: 38–65.
Minsky, H. P. and C. J. Whalen, 1996–1997. “Economic Insecurity and the Institutional Prerequisites for Successful Capitalism,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 19.2: 155–170.
Ravetz, J. 1994–1995. “Economics as an Elite Folk Science: The Suppression of Uncertainty,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 17.2: 165–184.
Runde, Jochen. 1994. “Keynesian Uncertainty and Liquidity Preference,” Cambridge Journal of Economics 18.2: 129–144.
Runde, Jochen. 1998. “Clarifying Frank Knight’s Discussion of the Meaning of Risk and Uncertainty,” Cambridge Journal of Economics 22.5: 539–546.
Rutherford, M. 1984. “Rational Expectations and Keynesian Uncertainty: A Critique,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 6.3: 377–387.
Schinckus, C. 2009. “Economic Uncertainty and Econophysics,” Physica A 388.20: 4415–4423.
Setterfield, M. 1998. “Path Dependency and Animal Spirits: A Reply,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 21.1: 167–170.
Shackle, G. L. S. 1949. “Probability and Uncertainty,” Metroeconomica 1.3: 161–173.
Stohs, Mark. 1980. “‘Uncertainty’ in Keynes’ General Theory,” History of Political Economy 12.3: 372–382.
Terzi, A. 2010. “Keynes’s Uncertainty is not about White or Black Swans,” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 32.4: 559–565.
Speaking of uncertainty if you want to find a ticking time-bomb in the Austrian theory of distribution track down this very short paper:
ReplyDeleteSir John Hicks' "IS-LM: An Explanation": A Comment
G. L. S. Shackle
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics
Vol. 4, No. 3 (Spring, 1982), pp. 435-438
Turn to page 436 and look at his discussion of the marginal productivity of labour. Then consider this in light of the fact that Austrians claim that we live in an entrepreneurial economy where the future is not known... Whoop! Their distribution theory doesn't work any more because it appears, as it were, to be hanging by its own bootstraps!
Will check that out! This is Hicks' famous repudiation of IS-LM, right?
DeletePaul Davidson also showed in his review of O’Driscoll and Rizzo's The Economics of Time and Ignorance how the Austrians, if they took uncertainty seriously, would discover that a lot of their marginalist theories would fall like a house of cards:
Davidson, P. 1989. “The Economics of Ignorance or Ignorance of Economics?,” Critical Review 3.3/4: 467–487.
Davidson, P. 1993. “Austrians and Post Keynesians on Economic Reality: Rejoinder to Critics,” Critical Review 7.2/3: 423–444.
That's true but I think the marginal productivity one is particularly cutting because it shows that uncertainty in the face of how my the product produced will sell for means that you cannot define a marginal productivity wage.
DeleteTechnically, you could assume that they use the previous period as a blueprint for the future. But this doesn't work if they're engaged in entrepreneurship -- i.e. discovering new goods -- and this is what the Austrians focus on.
Finally, this means that if, for example, a given product sells at a much higher price than the entrepreneur thought because their was much higher demand then the workers don't get their marginal productivity wage. This means that income distribution in an entrepreneurial economy is basically determined by the expectations of entrepreneurs and fair distribution relies on him having perfect foresight and sharing this information with his workers.