US Real Per Capita GDP from 1870–2001

The following is Angus Maddison’s data on real per capita GDP from 1870 to 2001, with my calculations of annual and decadal growth rates. The estimates for the 19th century come from Balke and Gordon (1989), and later data from standard sources:

Real US Per Capita GDP 1870–2001
(in 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
Year | GDP | Growth rate
1870 | 2445 |
1871 | 2489 | 1.79%
1872 | 2524 | 1.40%
1873 | 2562 | 1.50%
1874 | 2601 | 1.50%
1875 | 2643 | 1.61%
1876 | 2686 | 1.62%
1877 | 2732 | 1.71%
1878 | 2780 | 1.75%
1879 | 2829 | 1.76%
1880 | 2880 | 1.80%
1881 | 2921 | 1.42%
1882 | 2963 | 1.43%
1883 | 3008 | 1.51%
1884 | 3056 | 1.59%
1885 | 3106 | 1.63%
1886 | 3158 | 1.67%
1887 | 3213 | 1.74%
1888 | 3270 | 1.77%
1889 | 3330 | 1.83%
1890 | 3392 | 1.86%
1891 | 3467 | 2.21%
1892 | 3728 | 7.52%
1893 | 3478 | -6.70%
1894 | 3314 | -4.71%
1895 | 3644 | 9.95%
1896 | 3504 | -3.84%
1897 | 3769 | 7.56%
1898 | 3780 | 0.29%
1899 | 4051 | 7.16%
1900 | 4091 | 0.98%
1901 | 4464 | 9.11%
1902 | 4421 | -0.96%
1903 | 4551 | 2.94%
1904 | 4410 | -3.09%
1905 | 4642 | 5.26%
1906 | 5079 | 9.41%
1907 | 5065 | -0.27%
1908 | 4561 | -9.95%
1909 | 5017 | 9.99%
1910 | 4964 | -1.05%
1911 | 5046 | 1.65%
1912 | 5201 | 3.07%
1913 | 5301 | 1.92%
1914 | 4799 | -9.46%
1915 | 4864 | 1.35%
1916 | 5459 | 12.2%
1917 | 5248 | -3.86%
1918 | 5659 | 7.83%
1919 | 5680 | 0.37%
1920 | 5552 | -2.25%
1921 | 5323 | -4.12%
1922 | 5540 | 4.07%
1923 | 6164 | 11.26%
1924 | 6233 | 1.11%
1925 | 6282 | 0.78%
1926 | 6602 | 5.09%
1927 | 6576 | -0.39%
1928 | 6569 | -0.10%
1929 | 6899 | 5.02%
1930 | 6213 | -9.94%
1931 | 5691 | -8.40%
1932 | 4908 | -13.75%
1933 | 4777 | -2.66%
1934 | 5114 | 7.05%
1935 | 5467 | 6.90%
1936 | 6204 | 13.48%
1937 | 6430 | 3.64%
1938 | 6126 | -4.72%
1939 | 6561 | 7.10%
1940 | 7010 | 6.84%
1941 | 8206 | 17.06%
1942 | 9741 | 18.70%
1943 | 11518 | 18.24%
1944 | 12333 | 7.07%
1945 | 11709 | -5.05%
1946 | 9197 | -21.45%
1947 | 8886 | -3.38%
1948 | 9065 | 2.01%
1949 | 8944 | -1.33%
1950 | 9561 | 6.89%
1951 | 10116 | 5.80%
1952 | 10316 | 1.97%
1953 | 10613 | 2.87%
1954 | 10359 | -2.39%
1955 | 10897 | 5.19%
1956 | 10914 | 0.15%
1957 | 10920 | 0.05%
1958 | 10631 | -2.64%
1959 | 11230 | 5.63%
1960 | 11328 | 0.87%
1961 | 11402 | 0.65%
1962 | 11905 | 4.41%
1963 | 12242 | 2.83%
1964 | 12773 | 4.33%
1965 | 13419 | 5.05%
1966 | 14134 | 5.32%
1967 | 14330 | 1.38%
1968 | 14863 | 3.71%
1969 | 15179 | 2.12%
1970 | 15030 | -0.98%
1971 | 15304 | 1.82%
1972 | 15944 | 4.18%
1973 | 16689 | 4.67%
1974 | 16491 | -1.18%
1975 | 16284 | -1.25%
1976 | 16975 | 4.24%
1977 | 17567 | 3.48%
1978 | 18373 | 4.58%
1979 | 18789 | 2.26%
1980 | 18577 | -1.12%
1981 | 18856 | 1.50%
1982 | 18325 | -2.81%
1983 | 18920 | 3.24%
1984 | 20123 | 6.35%
1985 | 20717 | 2.95%
1986 | 21236 | 2.50%
1987 | 21788 | 2.59%
1988 | 22499 | 3.26%
1989 | 23059 | 2.48%
1990 | 23201 | 0.61%
1991 | 22785 | -1.79%
1992 | 23169 | 1.68%
1993 | 23477 | 1.32%
1994 | 24130 | 2.78%
1995 | 24484 | 1.46%
1996 | 25066 | 2.37%
1997 | 25819 | 3.00%
1998 | 26619 | 3.09%
1999 | 27395 | 2.91%
2000 | 28129 | 2.67%
2001 | 27948 | -0.64%
(Maddison 2006: 87–89).

Average Decadal Real Per Capita Growth Rates
Average Growth Rate 1871–1880: 1.64%
Average Growth Rate 1881–1890: 1.65%
Average Growth Rate 1891–1900: 2.04%
Average Growth Rate 1901–1910: 2.13%
Average Growth Rate 1911–1920: 1.28%
Average Growth Rate 1921–1930: 1.27%
Average Growth Rate 1931–1940: 1.54%
Average Growth Rate 1941–1950: 3.87%
Average Growth Rate 1951–1960: 1.75%
Average Growth Rate 1961–1970: 2.88%
Average Growth Rate 1971–1980: 2.16%
Average Growth Rate 1981–1990: 2.26%
Average Growth Rate 1991–2000: 1.94%

Special Averages
Average Growth Rate 1871–1900: 1.78%
Average Growth Rate 1871–1914: 1.63%
Average Growth Rate 1873–1879: 1.64%
Average Growth Rate 1879 to 1896: 1.36%
Roaring 20s, Average Growth Rate 1920–1929: 2.04%
Recovery from Depression 1934–1940: 5.75%
Average Growth Rate 1948–1973: 2.30%.

We can now rank the various decadal averages from the lowest to highest:

(1) Average Growth Rate 1921–1930: 1.27%
(2) Average Growth Rate 1911–1920: 1.28%
(3) Average Growth Rate 1931–1940: 1.54%
(4) Average Growth Rate 1871–1880: 1.64%
(5) Average Growth Rate 1881–1890: 1.65%
(6) Average Growth Rate 1951–1960: 1.75%
(7) Average Growth Rate 1991–2000: 1.94%
(8) Average Growth Rate 1891–1900: 2.04%
(9) Average Growth Rate 1901–1910: 2.13%
(10) Average Growth Rate 1971–1980: 2.16%
(11) Average Growth Rate 1981–1990: 2.26%
(12) Average Growth Rate 1961–1970: 2.88%
(13) Average Growth Rate 1941–1950: 3.87%.

If we remove those decades where the average decadal real per capita GDP growth rates were distorted by wars (1910s and 1940s), we obtain this list:

(1) Average Growth Rate 1921–1930: 1.27%
(2) Average Growth Rate 1931–1940: 1.54%
(3) Average Growth Rate 1871–1880: 1.64%
(4) Average Growth Rate 1881–1890: 1.65%
(5) Average Growth Rate 1951–1960: 1.75%
(6) Average Growth Rate 1991–2000: 1.94%
(7) Average Growth Rate 1891–1900: 2.04%
(8) Average Growth Rate 1901–1910: 2.13%
(9) Average Growth Rate 1971–1980: 2.16%
(10) Average Growth Rate 1981–1990: 2.26%
(11) Average Growth Rate 1961–1970: 2.88%.

Some observations:

(1) the 1870s stands out as the third worst peacetime decade of all time. Only those decades affected by the Great Depression (1920s and 1930s) were worse.

(2) The 1960s, the era when Keynesian macroeconomic management of the US economy was at its height, stands out as the best decade.

(3) The 1980s was the second best decade. But then Reagan’s economic policy was merely Keynesian after 1982, so this is not that big a surprise.

(4) Even the 1970s – the era of the oil shocks and stagflation crisis – had a respectable real per capita GDP growth rate of 2.16%, and was the third highest rate.

(5) If one defines the roaring ’20s as the 1920–1929, its average growth rate was 2.04%

(6) The average real per capita GDP growth rate from 1871–1914 during the gold standard era was 1.63%. The era of classic US Keynesianism (1948–1973) had a rate of 2.30%. The latter period emerges as the clear winner.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Balke, N. S., and R. J. Gordon, 1989. “The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence,” Journal of Political Economy 97.1: 38–92.

Maddison, Angus. 2003. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing, Paris.