tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post7683174809768357152..comments2024-03-17T00:23:24.896-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: The Price of Asset Bubbles in HousingLord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-69566598539267914182014-05-04T10:09:56.745-07:002014-05-04T10:09:56.745-07:00I am very interested on this argument, since there...I am very interested on this argument, since there is a similar issue in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Here, i am convinced so far there is no bubble, but only better credit conditions in credit constraint economy. In UK, i could not get the whole picture. Rob's coments sound reasonable. The article in The Guardian shows a urban problem, but not a speculation risk. Please i would be glad if anybody has more information and a accurate analysis in this question.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05485852776503009352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-46082750994023951892014-05-01T08:02:43.329-07:002014-05-01T08:02:43.329-07:00Well, I don't really have a theory - I was ju...Well, I don't really have a theory - I was just pointing out that that one factoid about young people living at home didn't prove your point. <br /><br />The existence of housing being owned for speculative reasons is a different and stronger reason why there may be a bubble.Rob Rawlingsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-58655574131355903182014-05-01T07:35:23.612-07:002014-05-01T07:35:23.612-07:00The problem has been around for a while:
http://w...The problem has been around for a while:<br /><br />http://www.theguardian.com/money/2011/dec/03/empty-homes-falling-apartLord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-41563319036060116232014-05-01T07:32:47.289-07:002014-05-01T07:32:47.289-07:00There are an estimated 900,000 or more empty homes...There are an estimated 900,000 or more empty homes in the UK as of January 2014.<br /><br />A slight stumbling block to your theory?<br /><br />http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42e787e8-72fe-11e3-b05b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30TT8RFZDLord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-79155125195237621172014-05-01T07:12:52.225-07:002014-05-01T07:12:52.225-07:00'In essence, the price of houses in the United...'In essence, the price of houses in the United Kingdom is so high that soon many of the young will be forced to live with their parents rather than be able to afford to buy a house."<br /><br />Why is this a sign of a house price bubble rather than a sign that demand has simply run ahead of supply ?<br /><br />Assuming that there is not a large number of empty houses in the UK owned by speculators waiting for the price to rise then there must be people who are able and willing to buy and occupy the houses that are no longer affordable to the young. If prices fell these existing owners are not going to sell there houses to the young and become homeless are they? <br /><br />Therefore I conclude the problem could be simply one of supply and demand rather than a bubble (based on that one factoid anyway)Rob Rawlingsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-6738978596354744732014-05-01T05:47:31.992-07:002014-05-01T05:47:31.992-07:00That post is great, and I was not aware of the pro...That post is great, and I was not aware of the problems with the data from the BIS Property Price index.<br /><br />I have added an addendum above and linked to that post.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-40817853198859401592014-05-01T05:13:53.968-07:002014-05-01T05:13:53.968-07:00Check this out...
http://fixingtheeconomists.word...Check this out...<br /><br />http://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/2014/05/01/has-the-uk-got-another-property-bubble/Philip Pilkingtonhttp://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.com