tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post3555749402424865480..comments2024-03-28T17:08:15.784-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: Falling Birth Rates: Quick ThoughtsLord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-30389418715188164032016-06-09T12:11:32.136-07:002016-06-09T12:11:32.136-07:00Thank you for clearing this out kevin :)Thank you for clearing this out kevin :)disequilibriumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760922141392402211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-21990016717757743472016-06-09T10:31:50.212-07:002016-06-09T10:31:50.212-07:00"High birth rates in Israel are mainly due to..."<b>High birth rates in Israel are mainly due to a strongly religious culture. The fundamentalists produce lots of kids, for example.</b>"<br /><br />Implying Israel is a religious nation, SERIOUSLY?<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irreligion_in_Israel<br /><br />Irreligion in Israel is common.[1] Jewish atheism is the most common form of irreligion.[2] In Israel, around 50% of Israelis who were born ethnically Jewish consider themselves 'secular' or 'hilonim', some of them still keep certain religious traditions for cultural reasons, but most are immersed within the secular Jewish culture. The number of atheists and agnostics is lower, and stands at 15% and 37% respectively. The 2009 Avi-Chai study found 77% of Israeli Jews believe in a "higher power", while 46% define themselves as secular, of which 8% define themselves as "anti-religious".Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11890229869783893118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-62722377155509468152016-06-09T08:08:04.879-07:002016-06-09T08:08:04.879-07:00There appear to be good studies by the population ...There appear to be good studies by the population researchers:<br /><br />http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2016/06/what-are-fundamental-causes-of-falling.html<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-36388492079901847832016-06-09T06:16:55.612-07:002016-06-09T06:16:55.612-07:00they are religious in the same extent as secular e...they are religious in the same extent as secular european religious to some extend and they are relatievely secular compare to religoius members of the socivety of the west.<br /><br />but yes secular jews closer to the version of secular italians or spainards than to lets say secular brits or scandinavians but still they are pretty secular.disequilibriumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760922141392402211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-77567603212775972902016-06-09T06:05:45.343-07:002016-06-09T06:05:45.343-07:00Why don't you do a study proving that religion...Why don't you do a study proving that religion is NOT a key determinate of robust/high birth rates? Publish it either on here or somewhere else and we'll compare notes. But do a REAL one.<br /><br />Trust me, if you prove this the demographers will be VERY interested. As they will basically all be wrong.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-48126157404354907032016-06-09T05:54:09.435-07:002016-06-09T05:54:09.435-07:00You've factored apostasy rates into your model...You've factored apostasy rates into your models of long run population growth of religious versus non-religious?<br /><br />You say:<br /><br />(1) high birth rates or even robust birth rates require a culture of childrearing and carrying on the species. <br /><br />(2) There is strong statistical evidence that religion is a key determinate of this. <br />--------<br />"Robust birth rates" being 2.3 to 3 per woman? (1) is no doubt true. <br /><br />If religion is a key determinate of it, it is not stopping the fall in birth rates in most religious Third world countries.<br /><br />What about Africa? They have the highest birth rates in the world and what religion is driving this?<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-89936833725423634162016-06-09T05:45:17.679-07:002016-06-09T05:45:17.679-07:00You know what's funny, LK? I've been famil...You know what's funny, LK? I've been familiar with this stuff for the past two years and I've built my own models. You became an expert when? An hour ago.<br /><br />I am comfortable in my research. If you believe in your rhetoric that's fine. Let's see who proves right. We'll see who is in our lifetimes. TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-71307856119608191212016-06-09T05:37:23.563-07:002016-06-09T05:37:23.563-07:00"There is strong statistical evidence that re...<i>"There is strong statistical evidence that religion is a key determinate of this. Therefore it is likely that religious groups will outgrow non-religious groups."</i><br /><br />And yet we've seen stunning evidence that religious communities aren't immune at all. <br /><br />E.g., Muslims in the West see their birth rates fall to replacement levels only.<br /><br />Also, there is a lazy and fallacious assumption in your thinking: that people in these communities will stay religious. That is naïve in the extreme. People are abandoning religion not just in the Western world. <br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-59799464256448329402016-06-09T05:35:23.641-07:002016-06-09T05:35:23.641-07:00And yet it is still a healthy 2.8.
6.8 is too hig...And yet it is still a healthy 2.8.<br /><br />6.8 is too high.<br /><br />You seem to confuse the statement:<br /><br />"In order to have a robust birth rate a religious culture is very helpful"<br /><br />With:<br /><br />"Religious cultures will never see declines in their birth rates"TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-16185549311569878652016-06-09T05:25:00.602-07:002016-06-09T05:25:00.602-07:00Secular jews are okay. 2.6. But secular jews are s...Secular jews are okay. 2.6. But secular jews are still religious to some extent. They are only 'secular' in comparison to their orthodox cousins.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-45610991106312200622016-06-09T05:24:35.328-07:002016-06-09T05:24:35.328-07:00Also, I see no natalist policy in Saudi Arabia.
...Also, I see no natalist policy in Saudi Arabia. <br /><br />If anything, it has only been in the last 2 years that they suddenly have considered it:<br /><br />http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-arabia-mulls-birth-control-policy-576866.html<br /><br />This extreme religious fundamentalist society has nevertheless seen its birth rate plunge:<br /><br />1981 7.1<br />1982 7.0<br />1983 6.9 <br />1984 6.8 <br />1985 6.6 <br />1986 6.5 <br />1987 6.3<br />1988 6.2 <br />1989 6.0 <br />1990 5.9 <br />1991 5.8 <br />1992 5.6 <br />1993 5.4 <br />1994 5.2<br />1995 5.0 <br />1996 4.8 <br />1997 4.6 <br />1998 4.4 <br />1999 4.2 <br />2000 4.0 <br />2001 3.8 <br />2002 3.6 <br />2003 3.5 <br />2004 3.4<br />2005 3.3 <br />2006 3.2<br />2007 3.2<br />2008 3.1 <br />2009 3.0 <br />2010 3.0 <br />2011 2.9<br />2012 2.9<br />2013 2.8 <br />2014 2.8 <br /><br />http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?page=6 Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-18367278634928243112016-06-09T05:20:32.684-07:002016-06-09T05:20:32.684-07:00It's not about a falling world population. Tha...It's not about a falling world population. That is not happening. It is about which groups will replace which other groups. At this rate religious groups will replace non-religious.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-87621278968103849922016-06-09T05:18:06.677-07:002016-06-09T05:18:06.677-07:00yes but still it will be better if the population ...yes but still it will be better if the population will just stabilize instead of declining or growing.disequilibriumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760922141392402211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-48929665171130195542016-06-09T05:17:30.885-07:002016-06-09T05:17:30.885-07:00These countries TRY to drive down their birth rate...These countries TRY to drive down their birth rates. That may or may not be desirable - overpopulation may be a problem in some circumstances.<br /><br />Like interest rate policy, natalist policy can work if the aim is to decrease births. But it does not seem to work very well when the aim is to increase births.<br /><br />This should be intuitively obvious. Forcing contraception down peoples' throats is not hard. Telling them to stop using it is very hard.<br /><br />Likewise, forced sterilisation has occurred in lots of places. 20th century social democrats were much enamoured with this sick violation of human rights because of their dubious philosophy of the dignity of human life. The idea, on the other hand, of forced natalism where women are forcibly impregnated and forced to carry to term is, on its face, absurd. I know of no instances where this has ever occurred.<br /><br />Conclusion: high birth rates or even robust birth rates require a culture of childrearing and carrying on the species. There is strong statistical evidence that religion is a key determinate of this. Therefore it is likely that religious groups will outgrow non-religious groups.<br /><br />That is a scientific prediction. I will watch it happen over the course of my life. I am as confident in that as I am with any statistically derived scientific result.<br /><br />You can ignore the evidence and continue to Believe that some non-religious cultural shift is coming. But I'll bet my shoes I end up being correct.<br /><br />And that, as they say, is the end of that discussion. Let's wait and see. Shall we?TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-20797007762895840192016-06-09T05:15:26.346-07:002016-06-09T05:15:26.346-07:00It's been an interesting discussion, but I don...It's been an interesting discussion, but I don't think we should be fazed by a falling population. That helps the planet out no end. <br /><br />China was a bit brutal with its one child policy that has left a couple of generations lob-sided. It's probably better if it is done naturally. <br /><br />People living longer and healthier lives mean that they contribute for longer. Something that just isn't picked up by 'economics'. NeilWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565959939525324309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-60801728214838604122016-06-09T05:09:49.079-07:002016-06-09T05:09:49.079-07:00"Turkey's anti-natalist policies started ...<i>"Turkey's anti-natalist policies started in 1962."</i><br /><br />That is NOT the issue.<br /><br />The issue is: <br /><br />Turkey has had a religious fundamentalist revival since the 1990s, and has not stopped their birth rate from falling to replacement level:<br /><br />1991 3.0 <br />1992 2.9<br />1993 2.8<br />1994 2.8<br />1995 2.7 <br />1996 2.7<br />1997 2.6<br />1998 2.6<br />1999 2.5<br />2000 2.5 <br />2001 2.4<br />2002 2.4<br />2003 2.3<br />2004 2.3 <br />2005 2.3 <br />2006 2.2<br />2007 2.2<br />2008 2.2<br />2009 2.2<br />2010 2.1 <br />2011 2.1<br />2012 2.1<br />2013 2.1<br />2014 2.1<br /><br />http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?page=4 Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-58940665083898726622016-06-09T05:01:49.550-07:002016-06-09T05:01:49.550-07:00There is no contradiction. If you see one then you...There is no contradiction. If you see one then you are confused.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-10698432522585932962016-06-09T05:01:05.222-07:002016-06-09T05:01:05.222-07:00"Check for anti-natalist policies in these co...<i>"Check for anti-natalist policies in these countries."</i><br /><br />But that makes nonsense of the idea that conservative religion is the answer.<br /><br />Wait: we need conservative religion, but even a conservative religious country like Iran promotes lower birth rates because it sees advantages in it???Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-18920583301599282032016-06-09T04:59:49.266-07:002016-06-09T04:59:49.266-07:00also the birth rate of religious jews declined fro...also the birth rate of religious jews declined from 90-s from something like 8-9 children to 6 children in average.<br /><br />while as i mentioned secular jewish birth rates are on the rise.<br /><br />i guess its also have something to do with the fact that israel is one of the only countries which fertility treatments of all kinds for free so many women able to get a baby in their late 30-s and 40-s with no big problem.disequilibriumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760922141392402211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-57440377814189595782016-06-09T04:59:44.620-07:002016-06-09T04:59:44.620-07:00Here is some pieces on India's social democrat...Here is some pieces on India's social democratic eugeicist death camps:<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_sterilization#India<br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/12/india-sterilisation-deaths-women-forced-camps-relatives<br /><br />Yes Virginia, social democracy has a disgusting history that it will not even begin to recognise.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-57941421381036146082016-06-09T04:57:11.436-07:002016-06-09T04:57:11.436-07:00Turkey's anti-natalist policies started in 196...Turkey's anti-natalist policies started in 1962.<br /><br />Read up on this stuff. Please.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-84141798126604251462016-06-09T04:55:54.677-07:002016-06-09T04:55:54.677-07:00Here is more killer evidence: how is the religious...Here is more killer evidence: how is the religious fundamentalist revival doing in Turkey?:<br /><br />http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/turkey-erdogan-pushes-family-planning-three-kid-policy.html<br /><br />They are set to hit replacement rates in about 20 years.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-30480299054244890452016-06-09T04:55:45.524-07:002016-06-09T04:55:45.524-07:00Check for anti-natalist policies in these countrie...Check for anti-natalist policies in these countries.<br /><br />I'm surprised you're not aware of the Indian anti-natalist policies. They were vicious and disgusting and... pursued by Westernised social democrats - you know, the ones that always turn out to be savage eugenicists behind their caring masks.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-48328742965551746312016-06-09T04:51:29.472-07:002016-06-09T04:51:29.472-07:00"All the evidence runs contrary to this. West...<i>"All the evidence runs contrary to this. Western civilisation is in decline unless it undergoes a massive cultural shift - probably back toward religious modes of living"</i><br /><br />A **culture shift of some kind** back to having more children doesn't need religion.<br /><br />And putting the blame on secularism for the Western decline is clearly refuted by the collapse of birth rates in *highly religious rural Hindu India* and in Muslim nations.<br /><br />OK, you can dismiss Iran. But the decline in Saudi Arabia and other societies that are basically in the grip of fundamentalism is right there in the data.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-9093120972886561412016-06-09T04:47:27.208-07:002016-06-09T04:47:27.208-07:00Not always or necessarily true.
What about Saudi ...Not always or necessarily true.<br /><br />What about Saudi Arabia, Illusionist?<br /><br />This extreme fundamentalist theocracy's birth rate plunged from 7.1 in 1981 to <br />2.8 in 2014. The long run falling trend is clear. It may fall to mere replacement level or below it.<br /><br />http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?page=1 Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.com