Realist Left’s latest analysis of the US presidential and US Congressional elections:
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Not very "Realist" and made several factual errors. As I pointed out ;-)
ReplyDeleteYeah, I guess they're errors if you think the mainstream media polling with a good reputation is all conspiring against Trump, but pollsters known to be heavily Republican-leaning and not-even-polls are depicting reality the best. ;-)
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Delete1) That "mainstream media polling with a good reputation" has been proven to be colluding with the Clinton campaign. Or have you been asleep during the entire Bernie Sanders campaign & subsequent Wikileaks emails?
Delete2) I demonstrated interest on the part of those MSM angels you think are so benign and above bias. You need to demonstrate interest on the part of what you are calling "heavily Republican-leaning and not-even-polls" to elevate Trump. I don't think you can, because most of the GOP establishment hates his guts and several of them are openly supporting HRC.
3) Investor's Business Daily is widely recognized as having the best averages over the last 3 POTUS elections:
http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/10/despite_the_pundits_whove_decided_the_race_is_over.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/25/stop-it-with-the-clinton-coronation-trump-can-still-win-commentary.html
http://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/once-again-critics-of-the-ibdtipp-poll-get-their-facts-wrong
4) FOX News has released a poll showing the race tightening to a 3-5% differential. That puts LAT, Rasmussen, IBD & Gravis all in the mainstream of polling services with a 5 point or less spread, including Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov and (in a 4-way race) CNN & NBC. So what was that you are saying about outliers? ;-)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Please also note that ABC/WaPo has shown a less than 5pt spread as recently as Mid-October and ABC Tracking shows an increasingly tightening race as well.
I pretty much agree with Kevin on the polls here. Most polls are juiced for one reason or another. The accurate ones are the secret ones, the campaign internals, because those are the only polls where the customer really wants the accurate picture.we can only guess at them, but candidate behavior and spending choices are driven by them sometimes allowing inferences. Trump was dead in a few states but now is not. It is not over.
ReplyDeleteWould be interesting to see if it's possible to test elections based on the poll results. I suppose that would be unethical if it meant feeding the public garbage stats, but still I'd love to see just how much is self-fulfilling prophecy.
Delete"Trump's behind 14 percent? Oh well, might as well stay home."