tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post9021862755299062913..comments2024-03-17T00:23:24.896-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: Two Problems about Europe’s Migrant Crisis the Left should considerLord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-30365680309418377362015-11-22T22:26:49.242-08:002015-11-22T22:26:49.242-08:00"and I think you'd see some Euroskeptic l..."and I think you'd see some Euroskeptic left-wing parties forming if there wasn't a penalty for splitting the vote like in a FPTP system."<br /><br />The only penalty to a FPTP system is politicians that fail to recognise what it means. <br /><br />A FPTP system means that you have to do your coalition building *before* the election rather than afterwards. FPTP expects there to be only two grand coalitions on the ballot paper. If there are more than two then the systems doles out punishment to the deluded fools who failed to form a coalition - by ensuring the other side wins. <br /><br />Forming coalitions *after* an election just ensures that nobody in the country ever gets their choice at an election. It means that politicians decide what is and isn't important in their post election negotiations - so you get meaningless AV referendums rather than a halt to tuition fee rises. <br /><br />PR is like everybody voting for their favourite football team to play a football match and then finding out that somebody who doesn't understand football has picked all the poor players from somebody else's team after you voted. A recipe for disillusionment and very poor football.NeilWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565959939525324309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-29183867077972744222015-11-22T22:21:01.760-08:002015-11-22T22:21:01.760-08:00There are two further arguments against open borde...There are two further arguments against open borders.<br /><br />Firstly that it prevents you implementing a superior social security system to anywhere else. If you have border controls then social security can be extended to anybody within your borders - wherever their origin. Once you remove border controls then you start having to restrict social security based upon people's origin - which I consider a truly racist act designed to create an underclass of foreign slaves. <br /><br />Secondly there is the private property argument. If you make the case that a society can exclude somebody from squatting in somebody else's living room, then it is very difficult to make an argument that you can't stop somebody from squatting in your country. It is the same argument over rights to private property. The members of a nation state have property rights over the country they live in. It *belongs* to them in the same way that a house belongs to its owner. <br /><br />You can only make the squatting argument if you deny that nation states exist, have a right to exist as the social manifestation of human tribal nature and are property. NeilWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565959939525324309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-987071472754031852015-11-20T07:29:54.035-08:002015-11-20T07:29:54.035-08:00By the word ( radical) I meant dictatorship, racis...By the word ( radical) I meant dictatorship, racist n discriminatory laws. Those ideologically extremist parties come to power not because people subscribe to those radical policies but mostly due to bad economic times. The unwanted party that swept power in Germany in 1930s was due to great depression not because they accepted their ideology . We also have vigilant n powerful media to keep check on the parties.Raghu .https://www.blogger.com/profile/12395537692968391912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-11236417585844714342015-11-19T13:19:06.921-08:002015-11-19T13:19:06.921-08:00I can't answer that offhand; gross figures don...I can't answer that offhand; gross figures don't really mean anything out of context, and each nation of the EU has a different capacity to serve as a host nation. <br /><br />It might be thought of a bit like MMT in the sense that the raw size of a deficit is never the issue; it's how well it mobilizes real resources. Similarly, 1.5 million people coming to Germany (a nation of 80 million with the 4th highest GDP in the world) means something very different than the 1.5 million refugees that have been accepted by Lebanon (basically the opposite: a nation of 4.5 million with the ~80th largest GDP).Ed the Catnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-58310516383374404412015-11-19T12:26:14.287-08:002015-11-19T12:26:14.287-08:00I know you're focused on immigration right now...I know you're focused on immigration right now but should the left be focused on political reform as well as social reform? In Britain the Conservative Party managed to take a majority of the seats with only 37% of the vote, and I think you'd see some Euroskeptic left-wing parties forming if there wasn't a penalty for splitting the vote like in a FPTP system. Not to mention it being undemocratic to win majorities with such little support.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17973580598290240182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-88368429957915398722015-11-19T11:45:28.708-08:002015-11-19T11:45:28.708-08:00Independent economic development in the third worl...Independent economic development in the third world is indeed the best solution to the problem of poverty there. No only do I accept this, but also the need for an end to unjustifiable wars.<br /><br />However, what level of immigration do you support into the EU? 500,000 a year? 1 million? 10 million? What?<br /><br /><br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-29356485603341981692015-11-19T11:34:13.845-08:002015-11-19T11:34:13.845-08:00You're just not being careful with your readin...You're just not being careful with your reading, I think. Maybe some bullet points will help.<br /><br />- I never said anything about a specific number except insofar as I was referring to what you said.<br />- The problem is not the immigration;<br />- Large-scale immigration is only a symptom of the real problem.<br />- More strongly policing borders, therefore, only treats the symptom.<br />- Refugees (including refugees from poverty, such as migrant workers) as a rule would prefer if they didn't have to leave their home.<br />- Solving the underlying problem will cause refugee populations to return home.<br />- The West is under no threat of large-scale permanent immigration unless it chooses to continue prolonging the problems in question (via proxy warfare, propping up fundamentalist regimes, etc).<br /><br />So, the answer here, and in general, is to be humane both in terms of foreign policy and to people in need. If you're not prepared to support that very simple notion, then I guess I must ask: In exactly what sense do you consider yourself a "leftist"?Ed the Catnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-92121483407353400312015-11-19T10:08:53.529-08:002015-11-19T10:08:53.529-08:00So, wait, you are not in favour of open borders im...So, wait, you are not in favour of open borders immigration but you want the EU to let in about a million people a year for the foreseeable future?<br /><br />Even worse than this, at one point in October this year Germany was expecting 1.5 million migrants this year:<br /><br />http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/germany-now-expects-up-to-15-mln-migrants-in-2015-reportLord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-13600383711634442192015-11-19T09:34:11.344-08:002015-11-19T09:34:11.344-08:00I'm not sure where the wires got crossed but y...I'm not sure where the wires got crossed but you seem to have read a couple things into what I wrote.<br /><br />For one thing, the sort of "open borders" you describe is not the sort I describe. I'm not saying "if the entire population of Egypt decided to try to move to the UK that is fine and dandy." However I also don't think anything like that actually exists. <br /><br />Most people DON'T desire to leave their home and social context, since that's what makes them who they are. However, grim circumstances often make leaving the only viable option. I am saying that those very circumstances are what we need to focus on.<br /><br />Do you have any data to back up your claim of "millions or tens of millions"? Because if such is the case, it only speaks to the severity of what I'm describing, and how focusing on this or that border grossly misses the point.Ed the Catnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-75105468781563415242015-11-19T09:17:34.002-08:002015-11-19T09:17:34.002-08:00Even worse, the TheIllusionist won't even reco...Even worse, the TheIllusionist won't even recognise what you appear to concede: that we have good reason to think that a majority of the migrants entering Europe this year are actually economic migrants, not real refugees.<br /><br />But anyway, the open doors policy you appear to be supporting will just encourage even more economic migrants to come, which will cause many more to risk their lives to make these illegal journeys and make the problem much worse than it is.<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-76592150208087735532015-11-19T09:13:26.935-08:002015-11-19T09:13:26.935-08:00I am not saying that these populist parties are th...I am not saying that these populist parties are the equivalent of fascism or Nazism at all. <br /><br />However, their neoliberalism is likely to be even more nasty than the mainstream conservatives and their anti-immigration policy far more harsh than a more sensible and humane left-wing party.<br /><br /><i>"Even if they try to do something radical, it will be opposed by people."</i><br /><br />lol... even if they are swept into office by large voting blocs?Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-28088808323124356882015-11-19T09:09:48.903-08:002015-11-19T09:09:48.903-08:00That is perfectly ridiculous. There would be milli...That is perfectly ridiculous. There would be millions or tens of millions who would come from the developing world if you let them through open borders. Open borders is an insane *libertarian* idea. <br /><br />You would utterly wreck Western economies and shatter their social democratic achievement. The welfare state would be the first thing to go. Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-6672809135819622392015-11-19T08:44:29.793-08:002015-11-19T08:44:29.793-08:00I don't think much will happen if right wing p...I don't think much will happen if right wing populist parties captures power. This is not late 20s or 30s. Much of Europe is educated n media also ever powerful. Even if they try to do something radical, it will be opposed by people.Raghu .https://www.blogger.com/profile/12395537692968391912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-81751252646612139412015-11-19T08:34:38.232-08:002015-11-19T08:34:38.232-08:00TheIllusionist is stating a lot of my own concerns...TheIllusionist is stating a lot of my own concerns about these particularities, but I'd like to just add, in a more abstract sense:<br /><br />If the only sort of person subject to the limitations you're proposing are economic migrants, then why should we halt our analysis at the raw numbers and not consider exactly WHY "mass" economic migration might occur (assuming it is).<br /><br />If we can describe it as "mass," we implicitly distinguish it from the status quo of limited movement between regions, and thus locate it within a lattice of particular geo-historical events. It's far more likely that we're looking at the symptoms of some real problem back at home rather than some mass shift in preference for travel abroad. If the choice is between enduring grinding penury or leaving one's family and friends behind to secure some kind of better life for them, then economic migrants are more closely related to refugees than you appear to be willing to consider -- up to and including the point that they're likely to return home if conditions there improve.<br /><br />So I don't see this as an issue a responsible leftist can simply handwave away. Real solutions need to be found for the political and economic problems brought on by global capitalism. <br /><br />Refusing to share with those who are less privileged is a time-honored right-wing tradition. I'm sad to see you signing on to it, let alone on the grounds that workers are too stupid/racist/selfish to show solidarity. Granted, many are indeed blinded by the dominant ideology, but we should all be fighting against that with every ounce of our being, not seconding it.Ed the Catnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-28772765787311192142015-11-19T07:51:38.241-08:002015-11-19T07:51:38.241-08:00"So now the primary claim of my post -- that ..."So now the primary claim of my post -- that we have good reason to think that a majority of the migrants entering Europe this year are actually economic migrants, not real refugees -- has been vindicated."<br /><br />No it's not. I'm done here. This isn't a serious discussion. Your view of this matter is clearly marked by a deep bias.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-49440130969743432662015-11-19T07:46:40.369-08:002015-11-19T07:46:40.369-08:00(1) So now the primary claim of my post -- that we...(1) So now the primary claim of my post -- that we have good reason to think that a majority of the migrants entering Europe this year are actually economic migrants, not real refugees -- has been vindicated. <br /><br />But you wouldn't know that from your original post that seemed to vehemently dispute it.<br /><br />(2) you have now shifted the goal posts: is the recent hysteria over increasing asylum seekers just a "moral panic" generated by news headlines of boat people?<br /><br />Yes, there is an element of this from people or media that want to depict *all* of these people as "invaders" or extremists. <br /><br />But once we get over the B.S. on that issue, there are real and terrible issues:<br /><br />(1) Merkel's policy will probably encourage EVEN MORE economic migrants to come, which will cause many more to risk their lives to make these illegal journeys and make the problem MUCH WORSE<br /><br />(2) it is putting terrible strain on government services and resources already. <br /><br />(3) And then there is the issue: with austerity already the vogue in Europe and weak labour markets, aren't you just going to massively increase unemployment? Increase the tendency for real wages to be held down?<br /><br />(4) and, finally, politically, this is inducing a disaster in Europe. It is not politically sustainable. People are worried it is a backdoor for terrorists, and rightly so after recent events.<br /><br />The populist right is rising all over Europe, e.g., Sweden Democrats, Danish People's Party, Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV), French National Front, and UKIP. The Danish People's Party is already in coalition government in Denmark and the Swiss just elected a populist right party.<br /><br />If more get into power, Merkel and even the complicit left must share part of the blame for being so stupid and irresponsible on this issue.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-32835347877611607032015-11-19T07:28:02.663-08:002015-11-19T07:28:02.663-08:00Not disputing the statistics. Disputing the extrem...Not disputing the statistics. Disputing the extremely weak-minded inferences being derived from them.<br /><br />Moral. Panic.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-34720857210636312152015-11-19T07:24:10.856-08:002015-11-19T07:24:10.856-08:00From which we infer: gee whizz, there seem to be a...From which we infer: gee whizz, there seem to be a lot of migrants coming from elsewhere.<br /><br />From which I'd conclude: maybe this Syrian crisis isn't such a crisis after all; asylum seekers in the EU have been growing rapidly since 2010.<br /><br />And then I'd ask: is the recent hysteria over increasing asylum seekers just a "moral panic" generated by news headlines of boat people? Has the flow of asylum seekers been creeping up since 2010 and people didn't notice because, in all honesty, it wasn't that big a deal?<br /><br />From which I'd draw the conclusion: maybe I shouldn't get my "news" from the paper or my analysis of migration flows from politicians.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-85822849576271477912015-11-19T07:22:28.153-08:002015-11-19T07:22:28.153-08:00For christ's sake, the newspaper reports just ...For christ's sake, the newspaper reports just cite *official government data.* <br /><br />So, what, now not even government stats are good enough? I expect not even the Eurostat figures will be good enough for you next.<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-47173039450063855772015-11-19T07:19:31.482-08:002015-11-19T07:19:31.482-08:00(1) you are attacking me over claims I did not eve...(1) you are attacking me over claims I did not even make. You argue that annual growth rate of total illegal immigrants has slowed in 2015 as compared with 2014. I did not even dispute that or make that claim, even if it is true.<br /><br />(2) The question is: <br /><br />of all the illegal immigrants arriving in Europe in 2015, what percentage are genuine refugees and what percentage are mere economic migrants. <br /><br />You freely admit that the data from Metro.co.uk from the Eurostate official data says people from Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan are just 40% of the total number of asylum seekers who have applied for protection in the European Union in Q2, 2015 (though even of these we may well find fake Syrians).<br /><br />That is NOT A MAJORITY. Unless the data from Q2 is wildly skewed, it can be used to infer that in other quarters of this year and for the year as a whole the result will be comparable.<br /><br />And this is BEFORE they weed out the fake Syrians, etc. Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-62028069935679482982015-11-19T07:14:46.163-08:002015-11-19T07:14:46.163-08:00You have a very poor handle on these statistics. A...You have a very poor handle on these statistics. And you seem to get your statistical analysis from newspapers and politicians. Good luck with that.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-47376505809591609222015-11-19T07:01:21.843-08:002015-11-19T07:01:21.843-08:00No. Syrians make up 20% of total asylum seekers. T...No. Syrians make up 20% of total asylum seekers. That is a lot, but not much. That means that either (a) there were a lot of asylum seekers coming anyway and Syrians just added to the pile or (b) the other asylum seekers piggybacked in on the Syrian crisis. You posit that (b) is the case. How do we test this? Simple: we look at previous asylum seeker flows. We check whether the trend has been thrown off substantially. If it has not then we conclude that (a) is correct and (b) is false.<br /><br />The Metro data has a quarterly estimate of 220,000 asylum seekers. Multiply by four for annual. So, 880,000 is our annual estimate. In 2014 we had around 650,000 migrants. We also had an annual growth rate of around 50% from 2013 to 2014. So the trend has actually SLOWED in 2015 as it has only grown by around 35%.<br /><br />THERE IS NO FLOOD OF NON-SYRIAN IMMIGRANTS TAKING PLACE IN 2015. The rate of increase has actually SLOWED despite the crisis.<br /><br />If you actually believe in what you have written in the above post then you do not know how to analyse statistics. I spend all day doing this. I do it for a living. If you cannot draw reasonable inferences from statistics then don't try. Only cooks in the kitchen, please.<br /><br />I'll defer to Wolfgang Pauli:<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong<br /><br />If you cannot do meaningful statistics work, don't play with statistics.TheIllusionisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17642837989235595346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-18747772896210031312015-11-19T06:59:17.589-08:002015-11-19T06:59:17.589-08:00Here is a further fact for your edification: in 20...Here is a further fact for your edification: in 2014 in the UK of the 25,870 applications for asylum 61.2% were rejected, because they were **not genuine refugees.**<br /><br />http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/26/opinions/asylums-seekers-refugees-explainer/<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-76782210459946518612015-11-19T06:53:20.953-08:002015-11-19T06:53:20.953-08:00And these were 193,500 who applied for asylum.And these were 193,500 who applied for asylum.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-25017324513614217802015-11-19T06:52:14.367-08:002015-11-19T06:52:14.367-08:00Um, so presumably you are aware that the expressio...Um, so presumably you are aware that the expression "asylum seeker" in this context refers to people illegally entering your country and then applying for "asylum", right? Even when they are just economic migrants? But the plain fact is that economic migrants are NOT eligible for asylum under the 1951 Geneva Convention about the status of refugees.<br /><br />Let me give you a dose or reality. Germany in in late October of this year ALREADY had an estimated 193,500 economic migrants who failed to leave Germany after their applications were rejected:<br /><br />http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-to-fast-track-deportations-of-economic-migrants-so-it-can-accept-more-refugees-a6707096.html<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.com