tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post7755804544644708340..comments2024-03-28T17:08:15.784-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: Japanese Real per capita GDP and Population DeclineLord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-2586303250442296782014-09-18T06:14:34.761-07:002014-09-18T06:14:34.761-07:00The real GDP data:
2004 | 2.36%
2005 | 1.3%
2006...The real GDP data:<br /><br />2004 | 2.36%<br />2005 | 1.3% <br />2006 | 1.69%<br />2007 | 2.19%<br />2008 | -1.04<br />2009 | -5.53%<br />2010 | 4.65%<br />2011 | -0.45%<br />2012 | 1.45%<br />2013 | 1.54%<br />2014 | 1.35%<br />http://www.statista.com/statistics/263607/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-japan/<br />-------<br />From 2004 to 2007, it was pretty average.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-23609921634603164862014-09-18T06:11:05.243-07:002014-09-18T06:11:05.243-07:00Japan had about 2.0% per capita GDP growth from 20...Japan had about 2.0% per capita GDP growth from 2003-2007, less than the UK, and right at the time its population started to stagnate and then fall, which would suggest that that 2.0% was partly a function of its population dynamics, not outstanding real GDP growth.<br /><br />So were you trying to confirm my post?Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-58737163787419630362014-09-18T05:59:41.993-07:002014-09-18T05:59:41.993-07:00Japan had high per capita growth rates before 2009...Japan had high per capita growth rates before 2009, see http://www.economist.com/node/10852462 .Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08098966216071132244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-73499485837494377072014-09-16T12:15:58.862-07:002014-09-16T12:15:58.862-07:00CPI is not GDP deflator. The Sumnerists have point...CPI is not GDP deflator. The Sumnerists have pointed this out long ago. How much of the productivity-real wage difference is simply due to the difference between deflators?pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-88647123075908168612014-09-16T05:57:36.322-07:002014-09-16T05:57:36.322-07:00Should read "rich to the poor".Should read "rich to the poor".Philip Pilkingtonhttp://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-32086893018269515672014-09-16T05:50:56.293-07:002014-09-16T05:50:56.293-07:00Japan is a tough one. The population dynamics are ...Japan is a tough one. The population dynamics are definitely playing a role in the stagnation. Which makes the Krugman story about the US and the West "turning Japanese" highly misleading.<br /><br />At a glance it seems to me that what is occurring at the moment is a massive transfer of wealth from the young to the old -- and probably from the poor to the rich. Even though real GDP per capita is rising, wages are falling quite severely:<br /><br />http://jp.fujitsu.com/imgv3/jp/group/fri/en/column/Current-Topics/20110131.gif<br /><br />The Japanese seem to be stuck in a trap of people working to send exports abroad. The revenue from these exports then seems to be redistributed -- through a variety of channels -- to the old and the rich.<br /><br />Such an economy cannot gain momentum. That is why all the stimulus packages have a sort of "pump and slump" dynamic. They never seem to generate acceleration. But that is because there are serious underlying symptoms, some of which you have highlighted.<br /><br />Solutions? The simplest is also the most complex: raises population growth through immigration. Why is this complex? Because the Japanese are, how should I put this politely... very keen on, erm, maintaining their culture. I.e. they are anti-immigrant.<br /><br />Alternatively, redistribute the income from the old to the young and the poor to the rich. But that is a thorny bush in itself.<br /><br />Anyway, all this shows why the West does not suffer from the "Japanese disease". When we stimulate in the West the accelerator principle holds and investment/consumption picks up pace.Philip Pilkingtonhttp://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.com