tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post7542371938185208005..comments2024-03-28T17:08:15.784-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: A Brighter Future for the US?Lord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-42716993699495653462013-04-23T03:52:51.670-07:002013-04-23T03:52:51.670-07:00"The strength of the US is precisely its rela..."The strength of the US is precisely its relatively free and vast financial and real asset markets that provide resting places for savings held in US dollars."<br /><br />And also it's openness to immigration and its suitability as a refuge for the wealthy. I believe a green card is not difficult to obtain if you hold sufficient wealth in the US. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-75011568369107283222013-04-23T00:37:20.084-07:002013-04-23T00:37:20.084-07:00Surely environmental laws will diminish energy dem...Surely environmental laws will diminish energy demand, increasing exports and reducing imports? In other words , reinforce the trend.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-55416448122866784972013-04-23T00:35:09.210-07:002013-04-23T00:35:09.210-07:00"So, the productivity boom will never take pl...<i>"So, the productivity boom will never take place because wages and demand are too low."</i><br /><br />Yes, that could derail the process.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-73069399766489511812013-04-22T18:56:11.997-07:002013-04-22T18:56:11.997-07:00I almost forgot about how important automation wil...I almost forgot about how important automation will be in the future, but am a little bit concerned about outsourcing and whether there will be greater sources of employment in the United States. Energy independence is the #1 aspect that we should all be welcoming, and hopefully cleaner energy will be accessible and cheap by then. Again, great analysis, Lord Keynes.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05166618601866526009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-68157997356682126982013-04-22T16:34:16.577-07:002013-04-22T16:34:16.577-07:00"(1) the news that the US may become an expor..."(1) the news that the US may become an exporter of energy and have energy independence in the coming decades"<br /><br />This is false information:<br />http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/an-analysis-of-world-energy-outlook-2012-as-preparation-for-an-interview-with-science<br /><br />"perhaps even with an era of cheap energy for the US itself"<br /><br />But not produced from oil. IEA estimates of future world oil prices:<br />http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/iea-estimates-of-future-oil-prices.png<br /><br />The era of cheap oil is over !!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-88339675651440401132013-04-22T14:31:35.545-07:002013-04-22T14:31:35.545-07:00Well if this happens, would you think this means t...Well if this happens, would you think this means that the green energy market is going to diminish even greater, especially in the US?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05640395882834813190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-88759515984854659262013-04-22T14:29:34.572-07:002013-04-22T14:29:34.572-07:00Hmmm... interesting. I agree on the energy thing. ...Hmmm... interesting. I agree on the energy thing. Oil price speculation has had the unusual effect of leading to an investment boom that essentially is setting the US on the road to energy independence.<br /><br />But the high-tech stuff? I'd love to think so, but I doubt it. Why? One word. Demand. There is simply not enough demand to ensure that these expensive technologies are invested in in sufficient number to reindustrialise the US economy.<br /><br />All the East Asian country rely on Western demand. Even if they make the (difficult) switch to domestic demand, they will not be able to absorb Western goods too. And demand is stagnant in the West due to low-wage growth.<br /><br />This will mean extremely lax labour markets. And this in turn will mean that a reverse Kaldor-Verdoorn dynamic will take place. I.e. lax labour markets mean low levels of fixed capital investment (check FRED if you don't believe the theory...). So, the productivity boom will never take place because wages and demand are too low.<br /><br />For more information on the Kaldor-Verdoorn dynamic and how it relates to demand I recommend the seminal Kaldor paper from the 1955: "The Lessons of the British Experiment Since the War: Full Employment and the Welfare State".<br /><br />Bet you can't track that one down, LK! Okay... it's in here -- the whole collection is fantastic, I'm seeking out Vol. II at the moment. I think me and Ramanan are the only people in the world reading this stuff right now:<br /><br />http://www.amazon.com/Essays-Economic-Policy-Volume-I/dp/B0013BNZ5C/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1366665923&sr=8-2&keywords=Kaldor+essays+in+economic+policy+I<br /><br />I'd also recommend the work of Robert C Allen in this regard. He makes the case that the entire industrial revolution was the result of the Kaldor-Verdoorn effect in the form of high employment and relatively high wages. His "Short Introduction..." is extremely meaty.Philip Pilkingtonhttp://www.nakedcapitalism.comnoreply@blogger.com