tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post7107938626023900693..comments2024-03-17T00:23:24.896-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: Rise of the Robots?Lord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-1107603761524668082012-12-12T01:06:22.614-08:002012-12-12T01:06:22.614-08:00This brought to mind the contreversy about depende...This brought to mind the contreversy about dependecies ratios and the future problems it will provide in the provision and paying for social care. <br /><br />It also started me wondering about the practical differences between structural and demand deficient employment given that the deficiency is putting in place financial resources to get people to into work.<br /><br />Finally it provided food for thought about how the potential for this technology to change human life for the better can be choked off by financial considerations.<br /><br />The comments by readers remind what a massive game changer oil has been:turning the depletion of this capital stock into a financial flow has been hugely significant. SpiritSkillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12225172385830110611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-32775165262729215342012-12-11T13:23:32.227-08:002012-12-11T13:23:32.227-08:00Yes, I can't believe I posted it because I am ...Yes, I can't believe I posted it because I am not a trekkie.<br /><br />I agree that there still are limited resources in the Star Trek world (such as use of the holodeck). I was making a point about values. Many people seem to make the assumption that $100 million annual incomes are required to attract the best corporate executives, as if money is the only motivator and definer of success.<br /><br />I believe people should be able to get filthy rich, but it should be through creating companies not looting companies. Growing companies through M&A should NOT count. Tax this looted income at a high rate. Keep l-t cap gains rate at the same level as middle class incomes. That will drive entrepreneurialism. Otherwise, people will just continue try to climb corporate ladder or work on Wall St -- not much risk there (and it rewards the wrong skill set).<br /><br />Here's something that not too many people caught. When Romney accepted Donald Trump's endorsement (2/2/2012), Romeny said, "I spent my life in the private sector -- not quite as succuessful as this guy [gesturing toward Donald TRUMP] -- but successful, none the less."<br /><br />I guess Romney must believe that Trump is also more successful than another well known person in the private sector: Jesus of Nazareth. Trump will be long forgotten in 2000 years. His ideas, too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-47916689776273232392012-12-11T08:17:18.512-08:002012-12-11T08:17:18.512-08:00"Seriously, I strongly doubt whether money wi..."Seriously, I strongly doubt whether money will ever be abolished in the future"<br /><br />With infinite energy and replicators there is no need for money. You can indicate your demand directly to the machine who can then create it for you.<br /><br />And with effectively no scarcity people stop wanting baubles to prove they are better at acquiring things than others.<br /><br />Unless you happen to be Ferengi of course, who hoard the only element that cannot be replicated - Latinum.<br /><br />NeilWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565959939525324309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-64675765003096787662012-12-10T20:36:41.148-08:002012-12-10T20:36:41.148-08:00I can't believe I'm discussing this, but:
...I can't believe I'm discussing this, but:<br /><br /><i>"PICARD: The economics of the future are somewhat different. ...You see, money doesn't exist in the twenty-fourth century."...</i><br /><br />And yet in other episodes there are references to "replicator tokens" and some such currency as a medium of exchange.<br /><br />Seriously, I strongly doubt whether money will ever be abolished in the future. For could you measure relative costs without it?<br /><br />It's one of those instances where Mises' economic calculation arguments have some merit.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-32722841493891897292012-12-10T20:29:55.306-08:002012-12-10T20:29:55.306-08:00Deflation has been avoided by measures to stop fin...Deflation has been avoided by measures to stop financial sector collapse, and monetary and fiscal intervention, yes.<br /><br />In the absence of these, there would have been a strong debt deflation like 1929-1933.<br /><br />However, when Keen uses "debt deflation" he is probably thinking of a weaker kind, caused by deflating asset prices.<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-15624391211689149872012-12-10T14:03:34.787-08:002012-12-10T14:03:34.787-08:00As i am a bit of an Izabella Kaminska fanboy hopef...As i am a bit of an Izabella Kaminska fanboy hopefully you have reading some of the amazing stuff shes been writing over at the FT.Andy Blatchfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05196261322445607791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-70214668385967194812012-12-10T13:20:36.176-08:002012-12-10T13:20:36.176-08:00"Interesting that the underlying assumption t..."Interesting that the underlying assumption there is that work is distasteful."<br /><br />YES. Any decent teacher will tell you that a good classroom practice is to give tasks to as many students as possible -- tasks that are discrete and unique to the student chosen, that others will see them doing. Do the attendance, report the number of lunches to the office, whatever. When you hand out these tasks, the problem isn't that nobody wants to do them (the prediction of textbook economics), it's that a bunch of students scramble to be chosen for each job. People work because they want to contribute and be seen as valuable to others and to the community. Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14943136764424893492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-38752496564042472942012-12-10T11:39:56.016-08:002012-12-10T11:39:56.016-08:00So it has avoided that commodity deflation through...So it has avoided that commodity deflation through government spending, right?<br /><br />But if there was no spending, the value of private sector debt should have increased due to debt deflation, right?Amogh Sahuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07413928488056833503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-86284002676706146932012-12-10T10:44:12.237-08:002012-12-10T10:44:12.237-08:00From Star Trek: First Contact (1996)
PICARD: The ...From Star Trek: First Contact (1996)<br /><br />PICARD: The economics of the future are somewhat different. ...You see, money doesn't exist in the twenty-fourth century.<br />LILY: No money! That means you don't get paid.<br />PICARD: The acquisition of wealth is no longer the driving force in our lives. ...We work to better ourselves ...and the rest of humanity. Actually we're rather like yourself and Dr Cochrane.<br />----<br /><br />It unfortunate that so many "successful" people in our society do not have a passion for their work. They only have a passion for wealth and power. And how does this effect the motivation for fraud? [It might be helpful to think of scientific fraud as well as accounting fraud.]<br /><br />I have notice that most professionals on Wall Street do not have a career horizon in finance of over five years (at least working for a big bank). This seems true from recent biz school grads to veteran executives. The idea is always to make a ton of money and get out (obviously, many never reach their horizon -- tomorrow never comes).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-80460094406298365562012-12-10T07:36:52.041-08:002012-12-10T07:36:52.041-08:00"Work should always be genuinely rewarding an...<i>"Work should always be genuinely rewarding and enjoyable. "</i><br /><br />But at the moment it's not true, is it.<br /><br />A lot of people dislike their work. A lot people have jobs they find boring or unpleasant, or some work is even dangerous.<br /><br />Of course, some people do find enjoyment in work other people dislike. I don't deny that. Each to his own.<br /><br />What I am saying is: it's quite possible many people will not have to work at all in the conventional sense (for decent lifestyle and retirement) in the future, perhaps a future closer than we think.<br /><br />When I was a younger man, I was somewhat inspired by reading Ray Kurzweil's book "The Age of Spiritual Machines":<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Spiritual_Machines<br /><br />While now I think that many of the predictions and ideas in that book are wildly unlikely, some maybe ridiculous, and that Kurzweil has a poor understanding economics, nevertheless the core ideas are sound: in this century there will be revolutionary changes in technology, production, work and lifestyle, much more profound than the industrial revolution. <br /><br />The key technology will be increasingly sophisticated machine intelligence.<br /><br />It curious to me that no one has really done a good social democratic study of how new technological changes, with the right macro policies, could be used induce economic changes that would transform society away from what people really dislike about modern capitalism.<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-48485364223484586882012-12-10T07:02:01.657-08:002012-12-10T07:02:01.657-08:00"You will work, if you wish to, because you g..."You will work, if you wish to, because you genuinely find it rewarding or enjoyable."<br /><br />Interesting that the underlying assumption there is that work is distasteful.<br /><br />Work should always be genuinely rewarding and enjoyable. And yes some people do indeed like cleaning drains for a living.<br /><br />NeilWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565959939525324309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-30898312046525014022012-12-10T06:57:21.072-08:002012-12-10T06:57:21.072-08:00Yes, productive and socially, economically useful ...Yes, productive and socially, economically useful work programs are needed. <br /><br />And frankly there a lot that could be done - public infrastructure, health care, education, social services, basic research and R&D.<br /><br />I suppose in the future - whether in the course of this century or the next - even these things will be increasingly done by machines with artificial intelligence. <br /><br />At that point, radical changes need to made: a basic guaranteed income and living standard for everyone who does not have inherited wealth.<br /><br />I suppose people will cease to work in the conventional sense. <br /><br />You will work, if you wish to, because you genuinely find it rewarding or enjoyable.<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-30022960090582083002012-12-10T06:47:22.095-08:002012-12-10T06:47:22.095-08:00It depends on the context when he uses that expres...It depends on the context when he uses that expression.<br /><br />Obviously, the US has averted a full scale debt deflation with severe commodity deflation causing the real value of debt to rise.<br /><br />So when Keen uses "private sector deleveraging" he's referring to increased debt servicing and repayment - in the current environment - and the effects that has on AD.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-8148663145155309542012-12-10T06:20:54.254-08:002012-12-10T06:20:54.254-08:00LK,
I have a bit of a problem for you:
When Keen ...LK,<br /><br />I have a bit of a problem for you:<br />When Keen talks about Private Sector Deleveraging, does he mean that debt will increase due to debt deflation when the government does not step in, or that deleveraging will happen anyway, and government will manage it?Amogh Sahuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07413928488056833503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-38250906358104720612012-12-10T06:12:38.482-08:002012-12-10T06:12:38.482-08:00This is the 'paradox of productivity'.
I...This is the 'paradox of productivity'. <br /><br />If you replace people with machines, then how do they get the income to buy stuff that the machines produce?<br /><br />In aggregate the machines will produce less than is required because they are not getting the demand signal from spending to produce.<br /><br />So we have to invent stuff for people to do (ie redefine what is 'work') so they can earn an income and demand resources with it. Otherwise production suffers.<br /><br />There is no reason at all to believe that new stuff for people to do will arise spontaneously - any more than there is a reason to believe that the saving market will 'clear' spontaneously at full employment.<br /><br />Essentially Capitalism needs breast feeding advisers it is constantly complaining about.NeilWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11565959939525324309noreply@blogger.com