tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post4031122018659611466..comments2024-03-17T00:23:24.896-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: US Industrial Production in the 1890sLord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-54452362337917146352014-01-04T19:02:33.644-08:002014-01-04T19:02:33.644-08:00Out of curiosity, Lord Keynes, have you seen any o...Out of curiosity, Lord Keynes, have you seen any of the following scholarly articles that deal with U.S. financial economic history in the 19th century? All of them involve the same scholar, who specializes in this domain, but I thought you might be interested in reading them. I have supplied the citation for each article in Chicago Style, and provided a link to the article directly beneath each citation.<br /><br />Hoag, Christopher, and Stephen Norman. "Transatlantic Capital Market Price Discovery During a Financial Crisis." <i>Bulletin of Economic Research</i> 65, no. 1 (2013): 1-9.<br /><br />http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2012.00452.x/abstract<br /><br />Hoag, Christopher. "Clearinghouse membership and deposit contraction during the Panic of 1893." <i>Cliometrica</i> 5, no. 2 (2011): 187-203.<br /><br />http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11698-010-0058-8<br /><br />Hoag, Christopher. "The Atlantic telegraph cable and capital market information flows." <i>The Journal of Economic History</i> 66, no. 2 (2006): 342-353.<br /><br />http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022050706000143<br /><br />Hoag, Christopher. "Deposit drains on “interest-paying” banks before financial crises." <i>Explorations in Economic History</i> 42, no. 4 (2005): 567-585.<br /><br />http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2005.06.001<br />Blue Aurorahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02044362251868221897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-15848481261274703602014-01-03T13:15:10.323-08:002014-01-03T13:15:10.323-08:00This could well be the case. Okun's Law is rea...This could well be the case. Okun's Law is really only a rule of thumb and it only really works in the post-war era. I'm just throwing it out there. When working in the dark... try everything.<br /><br />I still think wages are the most reliable indicator on this. They are easy for historians to track -- much easier than unemployment! -- and they will tell a story.Philip Pilkingtonhttp://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-44580353024977421942014-01-03T04:43:35.955-08:002014-01-03T04:43:35.955-08:00"My back of the envelope Okun's Law estim...<i>"My back of the envelope Okun's Law estimate is getting Romer's numbers."</i><br /><br />Possibly because there could be a fatal flaw in Romer's assumptions: Romer assumes procyclical movements in labour force participation in the 19th century, but others find this unacceptable:<br /><br />http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2013/12/us-unemployment-in-1890s-who-is-right.html<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-5620298934547290422014-01-03T04:41:42.158-08:002014-01-03T04:41:42.158-08:00But does Okun's Law assume that labour force p...But does Okun's Law assume that labour force participation rates are procyclical (as in the post-1945 period)? <br /><br />There is evidence that they were countercyclical in the sense of rising during recessions before 1914. Does this render unemployment estimates by means of Okun's Law questionable for the 19th century?Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-74685795784227188082014-01-02T15:02:40.917-08:002014-01-02T15:02:40.917-08:00My back of the envelope Okun's Law estimate is...My back of the envelope Okun's Law estimate is getting Romer's numbers.<br /><br />But I'm doing it by eye from your graph and assuming the following GDP growth rates:<br /><br />82-83: -6%<br />83-84: -7.5%<br /><br />That means according to Okun's Law we should see unemployment climb:<br /><br />82-83: 3%<br />83-84: 3.75%<br /><br />Of course, Okun's Law is a regularity. It does not always hold. But it might be worth some consideration.Philip Pilkingtonhttp://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-43211350362910432732014-01-02T14:52:48.295-08:002014-01-02T14:52:48.295-08:00You want to estimate the unemployment rate? You ca...You want to estimate the unemployment rate? You can do it with that index. Take the index as a proxy for GDP. Then apply Okun's Law.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okun%27s_law<br /><br />It's one of the better statistical regularities in economics.Philip Pilkingtonhttp://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.com