tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post3804121362136063582..comments2024-03-28T17:08:15.784-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: The Great Depression in Europe: Selected Comparative Data on GDPLord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-10860852552823228642013-02-12T03:01:42.611-08:002013-02-12T03:01:42.611-08:00Jan:"Historicalstatistics.org
Portal for Hist...Jan:"Historicalstatistics.org<br />Portal for Historical Statistics<br /><br />Historicalstatistics.org is a portal for historical statistics, with the main focus on macroeconomic data on Sweden in the 19th and 20th centuries. Series are presented, for example, on GDP, inflation, employment, interest rates, exchange rates, population, money supply, capital stocks, worked hours, wages, profit rates and business cycle indicators.<br /><br />Below are also links to both Swedish and international data on historical statistics.<br /><br />The portal has received research support from Stockholm University (Department of Economic History) for cooperation with the surrounding society." <br />http://www.historicalstatistics.org/"<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-58530251126798165782013-02-12T02:28:30.504-08:002013-02-12T02:28:30.504-08:00Jan: "Technological Waves and Economic
Growt...Jan: "Technological Waves and Economic <br />Growth - Sweden in an International <br />Perspective 1850-2005 Schön, Lennart, Lund University-Paper no. 2009/06"<br />http://www.circle.lu.se/upload/CIRCLE/workingpapers/200906_Schoen.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-83259978946443432972013-02-06T07:22:22.268-08:002013-02-06T07:22:22.268-08:00Yes, you are right, but there was really bad blood...Yes, you are right, but there was really bad blood until second world war between red (poor fellows and communists, loosers) and white (elite, winners), all kind nasty things were going on - and little less after WW 2, but atmosphere was pretty intense at that time. You can't anyway compare those statistics to this day or make any real conclusions from those, cause espeacially gdp was a joke in stone age agriculture Finland and they didnt have any idea how to count unemployment rate. Companys didnt suffer too badly about this depression, but for many workers and farmers it was pretty shitty decade. No one has ever cared about little people so why should we now watch this about their perspective. Its most important that statistics looks good and companys makes profit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-40347482093516657242013-02-06T05:34:19.652-08:002013-02-06T05:34:19.652-08:00We had had civil war ...
I thought the Finnish ci...<i>We had had civil war ...</i><br /><br />I thought the Finnish civil war happened in 1918. As far as I am aware (I might be wrong), there was no civil war in Finland in the 1930s.<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-37078190733022428462013-02-06T03:26:21.370-08:002013-02-06T03:26:21.370-08:00Yes, but as i told you it is unreliable data. Finl...Yes, but as i told you it is unreliable data. Finland was at that time almost like Somalia is now. We had had civil war and people didnt really like government or each other and didnt pay taxes or anything what would have shown in bookkeeping. Those statistic wont give you the whole truth, what people who lived back then have told for it. That might be also unrealiable, but I still prefer for it more than some foolish statistics. Anyway, it wasn't anything like in US or main Europe for us.<br /><br />The counting for uneployment was very different back then, than what it is now. There was example many farmers and farmers sons who didnt have anything to do, but they didnt count them to unemployment, even they were starving... and most finnish people then were farmers.<br /><br />Only thing what is worth knowing is that we dropped gold standard 1931 and started keynesian monetary system.<br /><br />Industrial development happened little bit later and then you can get some real data, when people really worked in factorys and for government, after WW 2.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-88981298790339386442013-02-06T02:45:05.750-08:002013-02-06T02:45:05.750-08:00As it happens there is data on unemployment in Fin...As it happens there is data on unemployment in Finland for the 1930s:<br /><br /><b>Year | Unemployment Rate*</b><br />* As Percent of Labor Force<br />1929 4.1 <br />1930 5.8<br />1931 6.7<br />1932 8.4<br />1933 7.6<br />1934 6.4<br />1935 5.4<br />1936 3.9<br />1937 3.8<br />1938 3.8<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-87765137273875218962013-02-06T02:18:39.103-08:002013-02-06T02:18:39.103-08:00Those old statistic ain't telling the truth. F...Those old statistic ain't telling the truth. Finland dropped gold standard also 1931 and started keynesian policies, but what i have read and heard 1/4 of finnish citys didn't keep any unemployment statistics back then and all short-time workers were involved in working forces and there was all kind goofing with statistic back then. Anyhow, they say that "Great Depression" started here before 1929 and quited 1932, beacuse of devaluation of mark.<br /><br />Greece and other PIIGS should also drop euro (gold standard) and start some smart monetary policies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-33537114187371109312013-02-06T00:15:22.055-08:002013-02-06T00:15:22.055-08:00" as resources was not flowing to what was pr...<i>" as resources was not flowing to what was previously the biggest speculative bubble in Norwegian history."</i><br /><br />What asset bubble was this?Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-78432046587207820212013-02-06T00:04:19.646-08:002013-02-06T00:04:19.646-08:00Jan: Incase of in Sweden there was a real hard cra...Jan: Incase of in Sweden there was a real hard crash in 1931-32 when the Match-King, Ivar Kreuger´s empire was laid in ruins.But the relativly good recovery was depended on the 1932 Socialdemocrat goverment fiscal stimulis and the fact that Sweden leaved the gold standard in 1931 and pegged the Krona to Brittish pound.It was in reality a devaluation of Swedish currency.Many of the leading economist was advocating similar contra cyclical policy as Keynes, like Gunnar Myrdal,Bertil Ohlin etc. Both Myrdal and Ohlin worked under minister of finance Ernst Wigforss that in 1932 manifesto advocated a Keynsian like fiscal policy.There was also mild protectionism and relative pragmatic monetary policy. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-10178575864056849782013-02-05T15:29:21.877-08:002013-02-05T15:29:21.877-08:00"This must have averted a debt deflationary c..."This must have averted a debt deflationary collapse (though I do not know to what extent excessive private debt was an issue in the Norwegian economy)."<br /><br />It was a huge issue, it lasted generally throughout the 1920s. Norway had a deliberate deflationary parity policy from 1920-1928 right after having a creditboom having that started when they left the gold standard during World War I.<br /><br />"Ole Colbjørnsen and Ragnar Frisch proposed a strongly Keynesian policy to revive the economy around 1933-1934, but I do not know to what extent it was actually implemented."<br /><br />No, they were considered fringe "socialists". It was after the war that their policy was implemented.<br /><br />"So overall one would have to say that government intervention added recovery to some extent (via monetary policy and banking stabilisation)"<br /><br />Yes, most Norwegian economists believe that going off gold and stabilizing against the pound in 1933 helped the economy, the evidence being growing GDP and unemployment.<br /><br />It has some relevance since the UK was among others a big export market.<br /><br />Still, the deflationary phase had to large extent changed the production structure into a more sustainable manner. Country, and local industry flourished as resources was not flowing to what was previously the biggest speculative bubble in Norwegian history.<br /><br />There are numbers and qualitative information to argue the latter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-37748806639421039152013-02-03T13:45:48.473-08:002013-02-03T13:45:48.473-08:00http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S00472...http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S004727271100020X-gr2.jpg<br /><br />Shows Sweden Did Increase Spending, which is usually an indicator of Stimulus. Would explain the lower GDP.<br /><br />The Study concludes a greater role for the immigrants entering the Nordics, increasing labour supply for the greater unemployment. However, it grants the recovery in the Nordics to Demand side Policies.Amogh Sahuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07413928488056833503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-90781596786551360362013-02-02T10:28:14.677-08:002013-02-02T10:28:14.677-08:00I will add this above to the section on Norway:
N...I will add this above to the section on Norway:<br /><br />Norway abandoned the gold standard in 1931 and implemented a loose and stimulative monetary policy, helping banks and apparently preventing financial collapse. A severe and prolonged deflation was avoided and moderate inflation resulted. This must have averted a debt deflationary collapse (though I do not know to what extent excessive private debt was an issue in the Norwegian economy). The end to the gold standard also allowed a currency depreciation, which stimulated export-led growth and import substitution.<br /><br />Ole Colbjørnsen and Ragnar Frisch proposed a strongly Keynesian policy to revive the economy around 1933-1934, but I do not know to what extent it was actually implemented.<br /><br />Some quick research seems to indicate that from 1935 under Johan Nygaardsvold the Norwegian government engaged in some mild Keynesian fiscal stimulus, though other economists deny this. <br /><br />Apparently, the Nygaardsvold government did implement welfare measures and the economy revived from export-led growth (to a considerable extent driven by German demand for Norwegian goods) after 1935.<br /><br />Although government spending rose, it appears to have been covered by tax increases. <br /><br />One suggestion has been that tax policy took in a certain amount of money that was not being spent on capital goods investment or consumption, and hence that government spending was stimulative to some degree, but other scholars dispute this:<br /><br /><i>"There was a significant growth in the public sector. However, this increase was levelled out by higher taxes. Thus, in this respect, the net effect on demand was neutral. On the other hand, the marginal propensities to consume and save differed from the public to the private sector. Empirical evidence from Norway reflects that the marginal propensity to consume was higher in the public sector than in the private. Thus, [ceteris paribus] ... the relative growth in the public sector had a positive impact on demand. Nevertheless, due to budget discipline and moderate multiplier effects the fiscal policy in Norway under the Labour Party rule in the 1930s was neutral. In sum, fiscal policy seems to have played a minor, if any, role for the relative good performance of the Nordic economies during the 1930s.</i><br /><br />Ola Honningdal Grytten, Why was the Great Depression not so Great in the Nordic Countries? Economic Policy and Unemployment, p. 18.<br /><br />Moreover, the data indicates that Norway had a serious unemployment problem right up to the war:<br /><br />Year | Unemployment rate<br />1920 | 1.7 <br />1921 | 6.8 <br />1922 | 7.5 <br />1923 | 5.6 <br />1924 | 4.2 <br />1925 | 5.7 <br />1926 | 8.7 <br />1927 | 8.9 <br />1928 | 7.9 <br />1929 | 7.0 <br />1930 | 7.0 <br />1931 | 10.2 <br />1932 | 10.6 <br />1933 | 10.8 <br />1934 | 10.3 <br />1935 | 9.9 <br />1936 | 8.7<br />1937 | 7.3 <br />1938 | 6.8 <br />1939 | 5.7<br />Ola Honningdal Grytten, Why was the Great Depression not so Great in the Nordic Countries? Economic Policy and Unemployment, p. 13.<br />---------------<br /><br />So overall one would have to say that government intervention added recovery to some extent (via monetary policy and banking stabilisation), but also international trade helped. <br /><br />Fiscal stimulus was either too mild or just neutral: it needed to be much larger.<br /><br />Some research on unemployment here:<br /><br />O.H. Grytten and C. Brautaset 2000, ‘Family Households and Unemployment in Norway During Years<br /><br />Ola Honningdal Grytten, Why was the Great Depression not so Great in the Nordic Countries? Economic Policy and Unemployment, online<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-84672048656447250012013-02-02T09:22:56.516-08:002013-02-02T09:22:56.516-08:00I am from Norway, we had 10 years of deflationary ...I am from Norway, we had 10 years of deflationary policy(1921-1933) based on constitutional political correctness of a gold standard and austrian classical liberal ideology. After that we had fixed exchange rates towards sterling, based on the gold-exchange standard.<br /><br />We had an amazing growth path afterwards until world war 2.<br /><br />Austrians vindicated ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com