tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post1800046092589751659..comments2024-03-17T00:23:24.896-07:00Comments on Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: Keynes on Ramsey on Probability: What does it Prove?Lord Keyneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-25727122616445418252014-07-08T04:12:44.721-07:002014-07-08T04:12:44.721-07:00The emphasis on habits and "human logic/ cond...The emphasis on habits and "human logic/ conduct" together with the problems of grasping the right interpretation of subjective and objective probabilities makes me think that Keynes was maybe after something like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitus_%28sociology%29 ?!<br />I read an article on the similarities between Borudieus and Keyness understanding of probabilities in combination with animal spirits. Unfortunately I cannot find it anymore.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-86355116352285709782014-07-08T01:51:50.047-07:002014-07-08T01:51:50.047-07:00"Bayesian priors", effectively.
"t..."Bayesian priors", effectively.<br /><br />"the calculus of probabilities simply amounts to a set of rules for ensuring that the system of degrees of belief which we hold shall be a consistent system"<br /><br />is the updating of probabilities by inference from new data, and your knowledge/information/hypotheses/beliefs before you have any data is the prior.<br /><br />This was formalised by Jeffreys in the late 1939 so of course Keynes could not refer to him in 1931. I wonder if the term "Bayesian prior" is attested before Jeffreys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-17343510831507636302014-07-07T09:45:32.665-07:002014-07-07T09:45:32.665-07:00And yet I am not sure what he means by "a pri...And yet I am not sure what he means by "a priori probabilities" in this context.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6245381193993153721.post-45542353226689475542014-07-07T09:38:58.711-07:002014-07-07T09:38:58.711-07:00Keynes appears to be conceding that "a priori...Keynes appears to be conceding that "a priori probabilities" are not part of "formal logic" but of "human logic".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com